5 Theories about the Future of Gators HBC Billy Napier

Will Scott Stricklin stand up to the boosters and stick with Billy Napier? (Photo by Chris Spears)

by: Franz Beard l

www.gatorbaitnedia.com

One week, one bad performance by the Florida Gators and theories abound about the future of head coach Billy Napier. There are 11 games remaining on Florida’s 2024 schedule, but nobody seems to be taking Scott Stricklin seriously. Just a week ago on the Paul Finebaum Show, the Florida athletic director said he expects Napier to be the head coach at Florida for a long time.

That was before the Gators were made to look like some directional school playing for a paycheck by the Miami Hurricanes, a blowout loss made worse by the fact it was played at The Swamp. In the days since, it has been pointed out hundreds of times that Napier has now lost as many home games (5) in 26 games on the job than Steve Spurrier lost in 12 years.

Stricklin spoke with such confidence on the Finebaum Show but he had to be disappointed by what he saw on the field. Disappointed enough that he’s changed his mind? Disappointed enough that he’s trying to figure out at what point does he make the decision to keep Napier or let him go?

When and if Stricklin makes the decision – whether it’s to keep Napier or to write the first installment of a $26 million buyout – it won’t be simply about the wins and losses. Sure, that factors heavily into matters but can Florida afford the buyout of Napier and his assistants not to mention the buyout of the next coach and the staff he intends to bring? Napier's buyout alone is a huge proposition but that doesn’t include the assistants. A new coach will require a hefty long term contract, probably a buyout and assistant coaches will demand raises to leave their current job for UF. If Napier is fired, figure it’s going to cost Florida $50 million at a bare minimum.

Another thing that will factor into matters – availability. Already there are scores of Gator fans demanding Florida backs up a Brinks Truck to Lane Kiffin’s home in Oxford to make a Godfather offer. It's difficult to imagine Lane leaving since Ole Miss has a real shot to make a deep run into the College Football Playoff. This isn’t like a coach opting out of a bowl game. You don’t abandon your team when it’s going to the Playoffs. So many of the coaches Florida would want will have their teams in contention for the playoffs so that might change the equation for Stricklin. He hired Mullen from Mississippi State and Napier from Louisiana. Another coach from the likes of Mississippi State or the Sun Belt Conference is out of the question. So who and from where?

These aren't the only factors that will have to be considered, but they're a good place to begin. Here are five theories out there, any one of which could prove true over the long haul.

THEORY NO. 1

It starts with a line drawn in the dirt in which Scott Stricklin, with the backing of the UAA Board of Trustees, says the revolving door of coaches has to stop. Now. Napier is the fourth head coach since 2010, the sixth since Steve Spurrier retired. If Stricklin has the backing to stick with Napier it means at least one more year has been given to complete the foundation of a Florida football program that once carried the championship standard of the entire Southeastern Conference.

This will also mean going to the big boosters who write the largest checks and one-by-one convincing them that this is the right thing to do, that to fire Napier now would mean starting all over again, not to mention coming up with so many millions in hard cash for buyouts of Napier and staff and those of a new coach. Firing a coach isn't cheap. Hiring a good coach requires up front money, long term contracts and another buyout clause.

Would Stricklin be able to convince Napier that patience is wearing so thin that if he wants to remain gainfully employed he will have to make a few modifications? Unlimited coaching staffs are on the horizon so would Napier be convinced to give up being his own offensive coordinator and play caller?

Because recruiting could get very wobbly in the next week or two with all the rumors flying around that Napier won’t last the season, Stricklin is going to have to forcefully make it known that Billy Napier is going nowhere anytime soon. There is no time to waste and Stricklin won't be able to offer what will be conceived as a rather weak vote of confidence. It will have to be a no doubter that lets the world and recruits know that Billy Napier isn' t going anywhere. He will be Florida’s head football coach in 2025.

THEORY NO. 2

When DJ Lagway makes his first collegiate start against Samford Saturday he looks like the second coming of either Tim Tebow or Cam Newton. He’s big, he’s strong, he’s fast and he's capable of making every throw in the book. On paper, Samford doesn’t have a chance if Lagway lives up to the hype. If he plays lights out, everybody in the whole wide world, especially recruits who might be sitting on the fence, will see that DJ Lagway is the future of Florida football.

An administrative decision is made that no matter what happens this season, Florida can’t afford to lose DJ Lagway. To force Billy Napier to squeeze by on a $26 million buyout is cruel and unusual, not to mention his departure could also convince DJ to bolt to say … Ole Miss or Georgia? Both of them have senior quarterbacks. Both of them have plenty of NIL money. Both of them would love to stick it to the Gators and send them to depths unseen since 1979.

So, the decision is made that Lagway is too talented to lose and it’s worth giving Billy Napier another year to put the Florida football program in order. This might include giving Napier a set of terms to abide by, including the aforementioned offensive coordinator and bringing in an offensive line coach whose dudes eat raw steak for breakfast.

THEORY NO. 3

The decision is made at the upper levels to do a wait and see how things work out the rest of the season. While there is a faction of boosters supportive of Stricklin who wants Napier to have the time to build the program, there is also a strong faction of boosters who have concluded that it's time to start all over again.

The decision is made that firing during the season is not a good thing, particularly since the last three head coaches have been fired while the season is in progress. Even with the extra time to find the right fit who can re-energize Florida football, the Gators have yet to hire a coach who has shown the ability to sustain success. So, the choice is made to let Napier coach and see what happens. Perhaps he gets the Gators on a good enough roll that it convinces the disgruntled boosters that there are better years ahead. Would 6-6 do it? A 7-5 record seems a sure thing but 7-5 with that schedule? What if it’s 5-7 and all the losses are white knucklers, so close that everyone including the unhappy boosters believe the corner is on the verge of being turned? What are the odds that can be done?

Perhaps the road is rocky and firing is inevitable. Wait and see will give the big bucks boosters time to raise the buyout money, plus go back channel to contact Jimmy Sexton and Trace Armstrong, the two super agents who can give them a who’s who of coaches willing to make a switch and those who are happy where they are.

This scenario requires a lot of patience and a roll of the dice. For example, what if the boosters go all-out, have the money they need and a replacement coach all set and ready to go but then Napier shocks the world by going 4-0 in the month of November? What if Napier is at five wins going into Georgia and the boosters hold off, then the Gators do a total collapse to finish with a fourth consecutive losing record? Not only that, the boosters lose out on the coach they had lined up because he wasn’t willing to wait things out.

Complicated? You betcha.

THEORY NO. 4

Ben Sasse is no longer Florida’s president. In his place is interim Kent Fuchs, who hired both athletic director Scott Stricklin and Napier back when he was the head honcho in charge of all things UF. As soon as the Board of Regents come up with a suitable replacement to run the show out of Tigert Hall, Fuchs will slither back into retirement and a new president will take over.

Fuchs could send both his AD and head coach packing now, which would please a certain element among the fan base, but probably wouldn’t bode well with the next boss who won’t want to be saddled with someone else’s hires. Fuchs would have to give his new AD and head coach multi-year contracts, which almost certainly would put the new prez at a disadvantage. So, unless the Regents know who they’re going to hire and the new guy collaborates with Fuchs to both fire and hire new people, both Stricklin and Napier will remain in place for at least the 2025 season under this scenario.

This would give both Stricklin and Napier time to decide if it’s worth salvaging their careers at Florida or if they want to live the good life on a beach somewhere spending their buyout bucks. Also, they would have time to plot their next moves. Scott Stricklin has had success as an athletic director, can envision what needs to be done in the future and knows how to go about raising the money it will take to put the vision in place. He won't be unemployed long. Napier didn’t forget how to coach, just wound up in a place where his way of doing things didn’t exactly work out. He probably can forget the SEC, but does things the right way without cutting corners. Someone will find that attractive.

THEORY NO. 5

Think of this as the worst case scenario. The Gators knock off Samford as they should but next week the Aggies come to town. Given some hope by Lagway and a win over Samford that breaks a six-game losing streak, the fans fill The Swamp to the rafters and the joint is rocking from the moment foot hits football.

From the very first series, however, fans get the impression that this is going to be one of those whoever has the ball last wins type of games. The Gators play well enough to win but on the final series, the defense does what the defense has done for two years and can’t keep the Aggies out of the end zone. Despite scoring enough points to win, the Gators lose.

Within hours, well-heeled boosters give Stricklin, Fuchs and the Regents an ultimatum that it’s time for a change. With the ultimatum comes proof of funds that buyout money is in place as well as enough NIL money to keep DJ Lagway from transferring out at the end of the year. That move also allows a new coaching search committee to move ahead seamlessly since the salary money for Napier and staff has already been covered.

Other theories are going to explode on the horizon, particularly if the Gators struggle against Samford or come back to whomp Texas A&M. Buckle up. It's only week two and it is only beginning to get interesting.