Florida-FSU: Perception is 2 teams going in opposite directions

(Gator Bait Photo by Chris Spears)

It’s rather amazing how perspectives can change in a matter of four short months.

Back in August, Florida State was on everybody’s preseason top ten, the favorite to win the Atlantic Coast Conference and reach the expanded College Football Playoff where the Seminoles were thought to have a chance to avenge last year’s snub. Head ball coach Mike Norvell was ranked the No. 6 head coach in all of Division I by College Football News.

In its preseason magazine, Lindy’s wrote that Florida State was “the league’s still-most talented team to make a repeat ACC title run” while saying “Norvell has embraced college football’s new era to its fullest extent, annually flipping the roster with excellent program fits and impact players.”

That was then. This is now and right now the Seminoles are going nowhere in a hurry. Their 2-9 record heading into tonight’s (7 p.m., ESPN2) season-ending game with arch-rival Florida (6-5) at Doak Campbell Stadium puts an end to a season to forget, one that has FSU fans wondering how could everything go south in such a hurry? It wasn’t supposed to be that way.

It started with finding replacements for last year’s 13-1 team in the portal. Quarterback and Oregon State transfer DJ Uiagalelei was thought to be a coup, but he is a complete and total bust. Uigalelei was benched and hasn’t played since a game five loss to SMU. The offense, meanwhile, has been a complete disaster. Offensive coordinator Alex Atkins, perceived as future top tier head coaching material back in August, has been fired because the Seminoles have gained more than 300 yards in only one game this season and that was against D1AA Charleston Southern (1-10). All those other “impact” pickups from the transfer portal have been about as effective as Uiagalelei.

The perception is FSU is dead in the water.  

Nothing personifies how perceptions have changed more than the  2025 recruiting class, once hailed as pure genius and proof that Norvell is one of college football’s true coaching stars. The class has dropped like a rock and is likely to drop so far out of sight it will take a Sherpa to find it if (and when) 5-star O-lineman Solomon Thomas (6-4, 315, Jacksonville, FL Raines) and 4-star D-lineman Kevin Wynn (6-3, 325, Greensboro, GA Greene County) flip. Thomas is expected to flip to Florida, which has already flipped 4-star QB Tramell Jones (6-0, 200, Jacksonville, FL Mandarin), 4-star running back Byron Louis (5-11, 205, Fort Lauderdale, FL American Heritage), and 3-star OT Daniel Pierre-Louis (6-4, 300, Loxahatchee, FL Seminole Ridge) from the Seminoles. Wynn is expected to flip to South Carolina.

Losing both Thomas and Wynn would seem a death knell to FSU where the current situation is considered bleak at best. Most FSU fans think calling it bleak is a step up from the reality of where it is. It might not be rock bottom, but rock bottom is within shouting distance.

Meanwhile, there is Florida, coached by Billy Napier, whom Futiak ranked the No. 68 coach in Division I before the season began. Napier was thought to have a foot out the door after the Gators were hammered by Miami and Texas A&M in the first three games of the season. Following a lousy defensive effort in a win over a bad Mississippi State team, Napier was thought to have one foot out the door.

Once again, it’s funny about perceptions. The Gators are now an improbable 6-5 with wins in their last two games against ranked opponents LSU and Ole Miss. The Gators ended any hope for LSU to make the SEC Championship Game and they essentially eliminated any Ole Miss hopes for making the College Football Playoff. Most experts believe Florida would have beaten Tennessee had Graham Mertz not gone down with a season-ending injury. Many of those same experts believe Florida would have beaten Georgia if DJ Lagway hadn’t gone down with a hamstring.

Yet, here the Gators are 6-5 needing a win over FSU to finish a rather astonishing 7-5. Astonishing, that is, if you consider the schedule and preseason perceptions. Against what is considered the toughest schedule in the country, Florida has far exceeded expectations and Napier is no longer on the hot seat. Win or lose tonight he will be back for another year where the Gators will be expected to compete for a championship.

With stud freshman quarterback DJ Lagway returning along with running backs like Jadan Baugh and Ja’kobi Jackson, four starters on the O-line, plus nearly every important player from a defense that is suddenly formidable and the Gators figure to be a hot ticket item both for the upcoming bowl season and 2025. When the Gators beat LSU to improve to 6-5, the Gators were in the conversation for the Gasparilla, Birmingham and Liberty bowls. Beating LSU and Ole Miss has Florida being considered a serious possibility to land in Jacksonville for the Taxslayer Gator Bowl. The Gators would almost certainly guarantee a sellout, plus it would represent a tremendous coup for recruiting since Jacksonville is annually loaded with talent.  

So, here we have tonight’s game, perceived as a battle for two teams heading in opposite directions. For Florida State, a win over the Gators might calm the frazzled nerves of alumni, boosters and a few recruits. Any win over the Gators is considered a great win among the FSU faithful, but especially now when FSU’s season is in the tank and Florida’s is perceived to be on the rise.

For the Gators, avoiding a letdown is imperative. The Gators have plenty to play for. A win tonight and a bowl game victory would mean an 8-5 record that will resonate both on the recruiting and portal trails.

At 2-10, the perception is that FSU might have slipped many notches on the relevance scale. Some boosters will tell you candidly that this year has set the program back years. A lawsuit against the ACC designed to grease the skids for seceding is now perceived as futile. FSU thinks the SEC and/or Big Ten will welcome the Seminoles with open arms, but that’s hardly the case. The Seminoles bring very little to the table for either league and the only way the SEC and Big Ten consider expanding is to add schools that bring value.

A 7-5 Florida team will be perceived as teetering on the verge of rejoining the ranks of championship contenders. With Lagway as the lure and Napier’s job safe, perceptions will be that Florida is a very good landing place for both high school recruits and studs from the portal.

Not many would have thought that way back in August but they sure do think that way now.