Florida vs. Alabama, Preview, Prediction & How to Watch

Gators Have to Keep Alabama from Hitting 3- Pointers

There is no big secret to Nate Oats’ offensive philosophy. It’s all about 3-pointers and layups, emphasis especially on the 3-pointers. It works well enough that Bama leads the country in scoring at 90.7 points per game and is second in the country in 3-pointers per game (11.8). Twice this season Alabama has knocked down 19 threes in a game, one of which was in a 92-86 loss to Purdue when the Boilermakers were ranked fourth in the country.

Alabama’s ability to spread the floor and surround the 3-point line with shooters is the defensive dilemma 24th-ranked Florida (18-7, 8-4 SEC) must solve tonight when the Gators take on the 13th-ranked Crimson Tide (18-7, 10-2 SEC) at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa (7 p.m., ESPN2). Alabama shoots the 3-ball well no matter the arena (38.54 percent), but at home the Tide is formidable, hitting 42.3 percent (172-406).

Alabama is only 6-6 on the road this year, 4-2 away from home in SEC play, but at home the Tide is 12-1 overall, 6-0 in SEC play.  

“They’re No. 1 offensively in the nation for a reason and a big part of that is because they’re super-talented on the offensive side of the ball,” Florida coach Todd Golden said Tuesday prior to the Gators leaving for Tuscaloosa. “It’s not just the 3-point shooting. Obviously, they’re efficient from two as well, and they play multiple guys who can dribble, pass and shoot it. It’s going to be a really, really tough cover, for sure.”

Alabama coach Nate Oats ignores conventional wisdom when it comes to matchups. He is willing to play small a good portion of games, forcing opponents to adjust to quick perimeter shooters. Alabama starts 6-11 Grant Nelson at center but the power forward is 6-6 Rylan Griffin, who shoots like a guard but is forced to defend bigger opponents.

Can the Gators defend on the perimeter with their typical big lineup and can they force Alabama to go big to handle the likes of 6-10 Tyrese Samuel and 7-1 Micah Handlogten with 6-11 Alex Condon and 6-9 Thomas Haugh coming off the bench? Rather than go small, Golden will try to force Bama to adjust.

“I think it will be pretty consistent and try to take advantage of our size and physicality against them and live with it where it lands,” Golden said. “Again, it's been good for us all year and we've tried to stay away from playing small. But if it calls for it, it does. I'm not saying we won't do it, but we'll see if we can take advantage of our size for sure inside."

A year ago the Gators were vertically challenged even with 6-11 Colin Castleton in the lineup, but when he went down with a season-ending injury the Gators had to go small the rest of the way. That led to Golden loading up on size, landing Samuel and Handlogten through the transfer portal while signing Condon and Haugh out of high school. The Gators typically have the advantage in size both with the starters and off the bench, but unlike last year when UF had problems putting the ball in the basket on a consistent basis, this year the Gators have the guards who can light it up from the perimeter, particularly Zyon Pullin has scored in double figures all 22 games in which he’s played and Walter Clayton Jr. has scored 20 or more three of the last four.  

The Gators are a capable scoring team. Even on their bad shooting games, they’ve been putting up 80 or more, largely because they get extra possessions on the offensive backboards. If they can chase Alabama off the 3-point line or force bad threes, then Florida has an opportunity to do something no other SEC team has done this year, which is to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

Winning on the road in the SEC is always difficult. Winning in Tuscaloosa the way Alabama has been playing is incredibly difficult, but it is do-able.

“Gotta have toughness,” Golden said. “You know, gotta be mentally tough and have a great understanding of what our game plan is going in. And just understanding that on their home floor that's the game that they want to play, but at the same time, we gotta stay aggressive, too. You know, we're a top 10 offensive team. We played really well in transition and we're really efficient that way too. So again, we've said this a lot, but it's the balance of running when you have opportunities but also not being stubborn. And I think the situations that get you in trouble in this game is when you are too aggressive in disadvantaged situations. You might be playing 2-on-3 and you try to make a play and it gets blocked and now they're going the other way. Like, you gotta avoid those swing play situations and that'll be crucial on Wednesday night.”

Anticipated starting lineups

No. 24 FLORIDA (18-7, 8-4 SEC): 6-10 Tyrese Samuel (12.9 points, 7.9 rebounds); 7-1 Micah Handlogten (6.5 points, 7.3 rebounds); 6-4 Will Richard (11.1 points, 3.9 rebounds); 6-2 Walter Clayton Jr. (16.4 points, 3.6 rebounds); 6-4 Zyon Pullin (15.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.9 assists)

No. 13 Alabama (18-7, 10-2 SEC): 6-11 Grant Nelson (11.9 points, 5.5 rebounds); 6-1 Mark Sears (20.6 points, 4.3 rebounds); 6-6 Rylan Griffin (11.2 points, 3.6 rebounds); 6-3 Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 points, 3.0 rebounds); 6-3 Aaron Estrada (12.8, 4.9 rebounds, 4.1 assists)

SEC basketball

Tuesday’s scores: No. 5 Tennessee (20-6, 10-3 SEC) 72, Missouri (8-18, 0-13 SEC) 67; Arkansas (13-13, 4-9 SEC) 78, Texas A&M (15-11, 6-7 SEC) 71

Wednesday’s games: No. 24 FLORIDA (18-7, 8-4 SEC) at No. 13 Alabama (18-7, 10-2 SEC); No. 17 Kentucky (18-7, 8-4 SEC) at LSU (13-12, 5-7 SEC); Ole Miss (19-6, 6-6 SEC) at Mississippi State (17-8, 6-6 SEC); Georgia (14-11, 4-8 SEC) at Vanderbilt (7-18, 2-10 SEC)

SEC in KenPom analytics: 5. Auburn; 6. Alabama; 7. Tennessee; 21. Kentucky; 27. FLORIDA; 35. Mississippi State; 53. Texas A&M; 55. South Carolina; 69. Ole Miss; 77. LSU; 86. Georgia; 118. Arkansas; 142. Missouri; 203. Vanderbilt