It's LSU and Billy Napier's status is shaky; Does that sound familiar?
- Franz Beard
- Sep 11, 2025
- 5 min read
“The more things change, the more they stay the same.” – Alphonse Karr
It has been 299 days since LSU came to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium expecting to drive a nail in the coaching coffin of Billy Napier. Sure, Billy had been given a vote of confidence by athletic director Scott Stricklin, but that was before the Georgia game. A loss to Georgia, a blowout loss to Texas in Austin and once again Napier seemed to be hanging by his fingernails.
As we all know, a funny thing happened on the way to Billy getting the axe. The Gators beat LSU, 24-17, followed that up with a win the next week over Ole Miss, which ended any chance the Rebels could make the College Football Playoff, and then came a win over FSU and a Gasparilla Bowl win over Tulane. Four straight wins and all that talk about Billy having to squeeze by on something like $30 million of buyout money went poof into the night.
So, here we are a little less than 10 months later and guess who’s on the chopping block once again? Why, it’s none other than Billy Napier, needing a win over LSU to quiet the masses. It will take more than a win over LSU in Tiger Stadium Saturday (7:30 p.m., ABC) to calm the storm but every Lazarus comeback has to begin somewhere. LSU did the trick last year. Will it do it a second straight year?
Florida is a 7.5-point underdog to the 3rd-ranked Tigers (2-0). That’s down two points from the opening line. Does that mean the oddsmakers see a ray of hope for Florida? Or is it they don’t trust Brian Kelly to win a game he has to win.
Make no mistake about it, as much as Billy Napier needs this win, Brian Kelly needs it desperately. He has (at) Ole Miss, South Carolina, (at) Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and (at) Alabama coming up. Anything less than the College Football Playoff will give Tiger fans a serious case of apoplexy.
So, think of this game as The Desperation Bowl, a must win for both teams. Only problem is, LSU can absorb a loss and stay in the playoff picture. If Florida loses, Billy Napier’s job security will take a powder.
Can the Gators win this one? Nobody thought they could beat LSU a year ago, but that one was at home. This one is on the road where the Gators are 5-13 in Napier’s 3-plus years on the job. And, it’s Tiger Stadium, no less, where Brian Kelly is 20-2.
Florida has the skills to win, but that win over D1AA Long Island University and the loss to South Florida haven’t exactly given the Gator Nation a case of the warm and fuzzies. The Gators have had some plays here and there where they have looked like the team everyone expected this year, but consistency has been missing on both sides of the football and with special teams.
DJ Lagway is completing 74.5 percent of his passes but he’s only averaging 6.7 yards per attempt, down from last year when he averaged an even 10 per throw. The pass blocking hasn’t been consistent, nor has the run blocking. Jadan Baugh is a stud who can do amazing things once he gets to the second level, but he’s got to have the blocking to get to the second level. The defense has two sacks in two games. A year ago they made life miserable for LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, who went down six times under a relentless rush. Not only that, the Gators couldn’t get off the field against South Florida, whose smaller offensive line did a rather good job of pushing the Gators around. Over on special teams, Trey Smack has already missed as many field goals (3) in two games as he missed in 13 a year ago. Long snapper Rocco Underwood, normally one of the best in the entire country, air mailed one into the end zone for a safety last week. Punter Tommy Doman couldn’t have flagged that down with Michael Jordan’s vertical and a trampoline.
Can Florida put it all together against LSU? Will LSU help the Gators the way they did a year ago. LSU’s veteran offensive line of 2024, the one that Kelly called the best in all of college football, sprung more leaks than one of those rusty tugs mothballing in the Louisiana bayous. This is a newly minted line for 2025 but already the Tigers have given up four sacks.
For Florida to win this game, Florida’s pass rush will be required to channel their inner Fearsome Foursome to put constant pressure on Nussmeier. A week ago, Louisiana Tech sacked Nussmeier three times and got in his face another five. Nussmeier averaged a rotten 5.8 yards per attempt and completed a pass to Louisiana Tech corner Michael Richard.
Once again LSU is struggling to run the ball. Through two games the Tigers are averaging 118 yards per game and 3.63 yards per carry.
Stuff the run, pressure Nussmeier. There you have the defensive game plan in a nutshell.
A year ago, the LSU defense was plagued by inconsistency, enough that remaking the defense was an offseason priority. Through two games, the Tigers are third in the SEC and 11th nationally in total defense. Sounds good except for the fact the two teams they’ve beaten – Clemson and Louisiana Tech – are the No. 120 and No. 133 offensive teams in the country. Clemson lost to LSU but gained only 316 yards against Troy. Louisiana Tech gained only 262 yards against D1AA Southeastern Louisiana.
What the numbers tell us is we don’t know if the LSU defense is that good or the teams the Tigers have played are simply that bad. It seems like an opportunity for the Gators to play well enough to score an upset win over the No. 3 team in the country.
This is a winnable game for the Gators. Despite LSU’s lofty ranking, the Tigers are far from a sound football team. They did beat Clemson on the road, but Clemson isn’t nearly the team that was expected when the season began. Cade Klubnik has already played his way out of Heisman contention and Clemson fans are wondering how long before Dabo Swinney insists offensive coordinator Garrett Riley call up big brother Lincoln at Southern Cal to see if there is a vacancy on the support staff. Louisiana Tech has a lousy offense but the defense did stuff the LSU offense.
If Billy Napier can get the Gators to play with the passion and purpose that was on vacation last week then Florida has a chance. If the Gators can get off the field on third down, pressure Nussmeier and then plan turnover-free football on the offensive side, it wouldn’t be a surprise for Florida to win. One more thing, Trey Smack can’t miss field goals and Rocco Underwood can’t air mail another snap.
A win over LSU won’t ensure that Billy Napier is around to coach the entire season, but it’s a good first step in the right direction. Ten months ago, the LSU win created momentum that led to a nice win streak at the end of the year. Could it happen again?
If it’s true that the more things change the more they stay the same, then Florida could win and Billy Napier could calm the masses for at least one week.
The talent level is there, the leadership both with the players and the coaches is lacking, but I still think the Gators find a way beat LSWhoo
Billy and staff has done a good job of rebuilding the talent level at Florida. The problems are play calling, consist line play and playing with urgency. Improving the play calling will go a long way to help the other 2!
As much as our rusty young QB has struggled through two games there’s another SEC quarterback whose numbers and QB ratings including pass efficiency are even lower. Never mind the hoopla. Garrett Nussmeier is even THE featured subject of Thursday’s Wall Street Journal sports feature! But Garrett’s performance so far lags our Lagway. At some point, DJ’s going to find his rhythm and step into his immense talent. But Nussmeier is playing at the sane level now that we all saw those 299 days ago in the Swamp. Overrated! “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” Florida 20, LSU 13. Billy’s UF career survives another week.
I don't want to hear about how Notre Dame lost early to a cupcake and then won out and played for the natty as fodder for hope for the Gators this year. First of all, Notre Dame was a lot better team than the Gators have shown so far, and Notre Dame's schedule last year doesn't come close to Florida's.
The Gators are certainly capable of beating LSU but that depends on which Gator team shows up and whether the Florida coach can get his head out of his ass and call a decent game and not screw up clock management again ( I don't have much confidence that he's going to change anything he's already done up to this…