Kentucky will be a second notch on Napier's payback tour belt

Photo Credit Chris Spears

For a team whose four opponents have won a combined one game against Division I opponents (Vanderbilt beat a bad Hawaii team by a touchdown), the Kentucky Wildcats (4-0, 1-0 SEC) are getting a lot of love from the talking heads and scribes all around the south. Most of them seem to think Mark Stoops has Florida’s number and that it’s a matter of showing up, playing hard and the 22nd-ranked Gators (3-1, 1-0 SEC) will wilt at Commonwealth Stadium Saturday (12 noon, ESPN).

It’s true that Stoops has won the last two games against the Gators and three of the last four. It’s also true that Kentucky has a chance to do something that hasn’t been done by the Wildcats since Bear Bryant was the head coach, which is make it three consecutive wins over Florida.

None of that matters.

Let’s start with one basic concept: Stoops doesn’t own the Gators. He’s had the advantage of playing two first-year coaches (Dan Mullen in 2018; Billy Napier 2022) in transition years and Mullen in a dysfunctional last season on the job. The Gators committed 15 penalties in 2018, and in the last two seasons, the Wildcats have been handed gift-wrapped wins by Florida teams intent on giving games away.

It's true that Stoops coached well in all three games, but Florida played worse. Kentucky fans like to say the only reason Florida played worse is because Mark Stoops was on his game, but let’s flash back. Feleipe Franks was throwing SCUDs and the Gators were totally undisciplined in 2018. In 2021, the Gators lost by a touchdown in a game they had a blocked field goal returned for a TD and Emory Jones threw a critical fourth quarter pick that set the Wildcats up with what proved to be the game-winner in the fourth quarter. Plus there was that false start at the UK 11 on fourth-and-2 that forced a field goal when the Gators should have marched in for a TD. A year ago, the Gators gave the Wildcats 14 points on two interceptions, both of which were bad decisions by Anthony Richardson.

Billy Napier has had to live a full year with four games the Gators simply gave away in 2022. He’s already had one payback two weeks ago when the Gators dominated Tennessee from start to finish for a 29-16 win. Next on the agenda is to exact payback on the Kentucky Wildcats.

The Gators are 1-point underdogs, but they are a better football team than Kentucky. Florida’s one loss is on the road to 10th-ranked Utah, which has the No. 9 defense in the country. Florida should have won that game, but shot itself in the foot way too many times. The Gators have eliminated the silly mistakes that cost a win at Utah, evident in the win over the then No. 9 Tennessee Vols. The Wildcats haven’t been all that impressive in going 4-0 against two bottom feeders from the MAC, a 1-3 D1AA team and a Vanderbilt team that’s going to finish dead last in the SEC.

The Wildcats haven’t run the ball very well this year against four defensively challenged opponents and QB Devin Leary has thrown five interceptions, two against Vanderbilt even though he spent the day with time to dictate his memoirs while in the pocket. Quite frankly, Kentucky’s defense hasn’t been all that impressive nor has the offense and now they will be playing a Florida team that looks better than the Wildcats on both sides of the football.

Could that all change Saturday? Of course it could, but this is a much improved team over the one the Wildcats have beaten the past two seasons. After watching Utah win three more games since taking down the Gators, that loss doesn’t look all that bad. The win over Tennessee is light years better than anything the Wildcats have done. Kentucky would be double digit underdogs against both Utah and Tennessee.

Three reasons why it’s a Florida win: (1) Kingsley Eguakun will be at center, the Gators will have all five starters in place on the O-line (minus three last week) and the 1-2 combo of Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne will move the ball on the ground; (2) Graham Mertz is making the right decisions and getting the ball to the right people for an offense that will benefit from the return of Eugene Wilson III to take pressure off Ricky Pearsall; and (3) that Florida defense with Cam Jackson at nose tackle and stud linebacker Shemar James and Scooby Williams has some nastiness to it, enough so that the Wildcats will be rendered one-dimensional from the get-go.

Here's a fourth reason as a bonus: Billy Napier will outcoach Mark Stoops and the talking heads will be covering their tracks next week by claiming they knew Billy could coach all along.

It has been since 2020 that the Gators have won four straight games. Number four comes Saturday in Lexington in comfortable fashion. The Sayer says sooth!: FLORIDA 27, Kentucky 14

The SEC soothsayer

No. 1 Georgia (4-0, 1-0 SEC) at Auburn (3-1, 0-1 SEC): On paper this is another yawner for Georgia, which plays like a very good team, just not one on a collision course with a third straight national championship. It’s the first trip outside the friendly confines of Sanford Stadium and the first time Carson Beck will have to make the offense go on silent snap counts. If Auburn had any kind of an offense, crowd noise might be a factor in the game. Unfortunately for Hugh Freeze and the Tigers, Auburn doesn’t have a QB capable of kick starting the offense. Barring a miracle of walking on water proportions, Auburn is going to have to win games with smoke and mirrors on offense to go with a ton of help from the defense. Auburn’s defense is very good, just not good enough, particularly since the Tigers aren’t going to score more than 10 points on Will Muschamp’s Georgia defense. And make no mistake about it, this is Will Muschamp’s defense, which is why the Poodles will win this game even if Carson Beck lays an egg with the offense. The Sayer says sooth!: Georgia 28, Auburn 7

No. 12 Alabama (3-1, 1-0 SEC) at Mississippi State (2-2, 0-2 SEC): This is not a game Alabama is going to lose. It is a game in which Jalen Milroe is going to have an opportunity to prove that last week’s studley performance against Ole Miss wasn’t a fluke. Alabama is still very much in the SEC championship and College Football Playoff hunt, but they can’t afford another letdown and they can’t do it unless Milroe can prove he’s a consistent threat to make sharp, accurate passes and clear, confident decisions. The defense is going to take care of itself because the personnel is just too good not to. Alabama is only a 14.5-point favorite and that is only because the oddsmakers don’t trust Milroe. The Sayer says sooth!: Alabama 37, Mississippi State 14

No. 13 LSU (3-1, 2-0 SEC) at No. 20 Ole Miss (3-1, 0-1 SEC): This is one of the more underrated rivalry games in the southeast and it’s in Oxford this year where Ole Miss is extremely hard to beat. In Baton Rouge, LSU would be favored by at least two touchdowns thanks in part to the crowd, but in Oxford, the Rebels have a fighting chance, particularly if they can keep Jayden Daniels from breaking containment in the pocket. If they can take Daniels’ ability to pick up chunk yardage with his legs, this one is going white knuckles. LSU can’t win this game if Harold Perkins can’t get to Jaxson Dart. Contain him and there is no LSU pass rush. Ole Miss has to run the football because the Rebels won’t beat LSU without some semblance of balance. The line has dropped all the way down to 2.5 points which means the people in Las Vegas don’t trust LSU. Do we have an upset brewing? The Sayer says sooth!: Ole Miss 24, LSU 21

South Carolina (2-2, 1-1 SEC) at No. 21 Tennessee (3-1, 0-1 SEC): A year ago, the week after South Carolina played its worst game of the season, melting down against the Gators in Gainesville, the Gamecocks took a flamethrower to the Vols in Columbia. When the carnage was over, South Carolina had hung 63 big ones on the Vols. Can it happen again? Tennessee fans seem to think not, but South Carolina is actually a better team than last year and Spencer Rattler is still the QB. He only threw for a half bazillion yards and what seemed like 23 TDPs against UT a year ago. What the Vols have to do is grind away on the ground to keep the ball out of Rattler’s hands otherwise it could be dicey. If Tennessee runs for 200 or more yards it’s lights out Gamecocks. The Sayer says sooth!: Tennessee 31, South Carolina 17

No. 23 Missouri (4-0, 0-0 SEC) at Vanderbilt (2-3, 0-1 SEC): Mizzou is a deceptive 4-0 because the Tigers really haven’t played anyone tough yet they’ve been challenged three consecutive weeks. We still won’t know all that much about Mizzou after this week because Vanderbilt isn’t very good, not to mention QB AJ Swann (11 TDPs) may miss this game with an arm strain. He’s Vandy’s only chance to win. Mizzou is only a 13.5-point favorite. You would think the line would be much higher, but that just goes to show you how little faith the oddsmakers have that Missouri is the real deal. Figure it won’t be pretty, no matter who wins it but everything favors Mizzou. The Sayer says sooth!: Missouri 30, Vanderbilt 14

Texas A&M (3-1, 1-0 SEC) at Arkansas (2-2, 0-1 SEC): The Aggies will be without starting quarterback Conner Weigman. That’s not necessarily bad news because Max Johnson is probably a better fit for the Aggie offense. He throws a great deep ball and the Aggies have receivers who can flat out fly. Even without Rocket Sanders, Arkansas can move the ball and score points, but it all depends on KJ Jefferson hitting his receivers and making the right reads. This is a game that he will have to win as much with his legs as with his arms. The Hogs hope to catch a break if the Aggies are looking ahead to Alabama next week instead of focusing on the game at hand. White knuckles all the way. The Sayer says sooth!: Texas A&M 28, Arkansas 24