Pre-Game Analysis: Florida Gators (5-6, 3-5) vs. Florida State (11-0, 8-0)

Prediction: Florida comes to play but falls short in the Backup Bowl.

By Loren Meadows, GatorBaitMedia.com, Football Analyst

Florida welcomes the #5 Florida State Seminoles for an in-state showdown that throws the records out of the window. The Seminoles are looking for a berth in the College Football Playoff and would love nothing better than to cap off an undefeated season at the hands of their bitter in-state rival.

This year’s game could be dubbed the “The BackUp Bowl” as both teams will turn to their second string signal callers. Florida lost quarterback Graham Mertz to a broken collarbone, while Florida State will be without quarterback Jordan Travis due to a broken leg. This twist of fate could put a different spin on both offenses and force the opposing defenses to scramble for tape that may show what both backups are capable off.

Despite the loss of Travis Florida State is still equipped with one of the nation’s best run games as well as a defensive front that features two future early round drafts picks. Florida will have to find a way to breathe life into its non-existent pass rush force at least two turnovers to even the playing field.

While the attention will be on the quarterbacks, the defenses are almost certain to determine the outcome of the game.

Florida State Offense

Key Players: #3 RB Trey Benson (6-1, 233, R-Jr.), #18 QB Tate Rodemaker (6-4, 196, R-Jr.), #9 RB Lawrence Toafili (6-0, 188, R-Jr.) WR #4 Keon Coleman (6-4, 215, Jr.) #14 WR Johnny Wilson (6-7, 237, R-Jr.) #6 TE Jaheim Bell (6-3, 239, R-Jr.)

Backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker will have the nation’s 18th ranked offense at his disposal when he makes his first start on Saturday. While many of the Seminoles offensive numbers can be attributed to Travis, look for the Florida State to lean heavy on Trey Benson to carry the load. The Seminoles average rushing for 162 yards per game and will look to establish the run early to take the pressure off Rodemaker. Lawrence Toafili is a change-of-pace back and his 21 catches are the fourth highest total on the team.

When the Florida State does elect to pass, the Gators will be tasked with defending arguably the best trio of receivers they have seen this season. Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilsonhave combined for over 70 catches and 13 total touchdowns. Coleman transferred from Michigan State this season and is an All-American and Biletnikoff candidate. Wilson at 6-7 presents matchup issues for any secondary but can be prone to drops. To complement the duo, out wide the Seminoles were able to lure swiss army knife Jaheim Bell from South Carolina. While listed at tight end, Bell has the versatility to line up at running back, as well as quarterback and could be called upon to change the tempo behind center with the loss of Travis’ running ability.

The Gators have been less than impressive on defense all season and it will take its best effort of the season keep Florida State out of the end zone. Benson could be the best back the Gators have faced all year and his ability to run through tackles and break the home run play could be big as Florida State adjust its offensive scheme. Giving up almost 400 yards per contest, Florida has to find a way to improve on their seven total turnovers which is ranked 127th nationally. With the absence of Travis and Rodemaker less of a threat to run, the Gators will almost certainly sell out against the run and force the Seminoles to make their money through the air.

Florida Head Football Coach Billy Napier (Chris Spears photo)

Florida State Defense

Key Players: #5 DE Jared Verse (6-4, 260, R-Jr.), #0 DT Fabian Lovett (6-4, 318, R-Jr.), #15 LB Tatum Bethune (6-1, 230, R-Sr.), #4 LB Kalen Deloach (6-1, 212, R-Sr.), #38 Shyheim Brown (6-2, 205, R-So.)

This will arguably be the best defensive front the Gators have faced all season. Florida State is ranked 14th nationally in sacks and averages over six tackles for loss per game. Jared Verse has developed from Division II standout to first round draft pick. Fabian Lovett is not far behind. The duo has combined for over 27 tackles for loss and 14 sacks the past two seasons and are just as good against the run as they are rushing the passer.

Behind them are two solid very experienced linebackers who have accumulated 114 tackles to lead the team. Kalen Deloach is the team’s leading tackler, and sack man. Tatum Bethune is just as adept at the position with 55 tackles, and four for loss. The pair is given free reign in defensive coordinator Adam Fuller's blitz happy scheme and could make life hard for Max Brown in his first career start. In the secondary, Lake City native Shyheim Brown has emerged as the most productive member of a unit that allows just 183 yards passing which is 15th best in the country while ranking fifth in passing efficiency defense.

Coach Billy Napier expressed that it would be important to make sure that the offensive coaches found what quarterback Max Brown can do best and implement that into the game plan for Saturday. The Gators will need to make sure they stress the eye discipline of the Seminoles and allow the athletic ability of Brown to flourish. This should mean incorporating Brown in to the run game and picking their spots in the passing game. The Gators had success against the Seminoles on the ground in last year’s game and Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne will be tasked with getting tough yards against the Seminole front. Florida could actually find success down the field as the Florida State secondary will certainly be in the face of the Gator receivers and challenge the Gators to beat them over the top. While it can be frustrating for some the Gators will look to the horizontal passing attack that has been the most successful facet of the offense this season.

Florida running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (Chris Spears photo)

The Skinny: Florida needs to find a way to win this game. A bowl berth and bragging rights would put a totally different spin on the Gators' 2023 season. Despite the loss of Travis, Florida State still sees itself as a playoff and national championship contender and the Gators are simply another roadblock to overcome. This game has had some of college football’s most memorable games and moments to the benefit of both programs. This season the Seminoles have the better roster, better players, and despite the Travis’ injury the better quarterback. This is not to say Max Brown will not play well, the Gator defense unfortunately tends to make the opposing offense look better. If Graham Mertz was taking the field on Saturday and the Gator defense was playing average football, this may be a good time to call an upset. For this year’s game that is not the case and Florida State is the better football team. The crowd will be a factor early but the Seminoles take care of business and head to next week’s ACC Championship game undefeated.

Prediction: Florida State 38 Florida 17