Pregame Analysis: Florida Gators (1-1,0,0) v. LSU Tigers (2-0,0-0)

Florida goes on the road for what could be Napier's last trip to Death Valley

By Loren Meadows, GatorBaitMedia.com, Football Analyst, Host of the Lowdown with Loren Meadows

Lagway must play better for the Gators to get the win (Chris Spears photo)

As the Gators walked off the field less than a year ago with a shocking 27-16 victory that left Gator and LSU fans in shock, many thought could this be the turning point for the Gators under Billy Napier? The stoic embattled coach had found a way to get his team off the ledge with a career defining win and bought himself another year at the helm of the ship in Gainesville.

The Gators would go on to rattle off three more wins to close out the season, and the promise that was showed in those three wins had many thinking that after all the whining and crying, the Gators had found their man. Here is the thing, while everyone loves to applaud the gains of the offseason as wins in the regular season, sports doesn’t work that way. Teams have to show up week to week and every year is different. And with the goodwill that Florida built up with a solid win at home LSU is like Richard Pryor with that turkey “you will see them again”.

The Gators are coming off the worst loss in the Napier era and are headed straight into the teeth of the woodchipper. A game at LSU, at night, against a team that less than a year ago felt the sting of eight sacks and an embarrassing night in The Swamp. LSU has retooled almost every part of its roster through the transfer portal, even pilfering one of the Gators combatants from last year’s game in the process. The Gators say that they will “double down on who they are”, well depending on who you ask, a lot of people don’t like who they are right now so please don’t give us more of it. This game will have a lot to say about both programs going forward as both coaches are on the brink of for sale signs in the front yard with a loss. Brian Kelly says talk of firing Napier is “crazy”. Depending on the outcome, Napier may not be the only one they are talking about.

LSU Offense

Key Players: #18 QB Garrett Nussmeier (6-1, 205, Sr.), #29 RB Cade Durham (5-9, 205, So.), #0 WR Zavion Tomas (5-10, 192, Sr.), #1 WR Aaron Anderson (5-8, 188, R-Jr.), #6 Barion Brown (5-11,185 Sr./Kentucky), #14 TE Trey’Dez Green (6-7, 240, So.) #61 C Braelin Moore (6-2, 300, R-Jr./Virginia Tech)

Key Matchups: The Creeper v. Nussmeier, Florida Secondary v. LSU Receivers

Many believe that Garret Nussmeier who sat and waited his turn at LSU could be the first quarterback taken in the 2026 Draft. Many scouts believe that Nussmeier, has all the intangibles to lead LSU to a national title and then an NFL franchise. Not physically imposing, Nussmeier has the ability to make all the throws and is just mobile enough to make the defense account for him in the run game. Running back Caden Durham started six games as a true freshman in 2024 and was one of only two players in FBS to have an 80+ yards run and a 70+ yard reception last season. Durham is tough between the tackles and gives Nussmeier a solid option out of the backfield as well, he had 95 yards against the Gators in 2024.

Outside of the star at quarterback the LSU pass catchers could be the best in the conference, Zavion Thomas, Aaron Anderson, Barion Brown, and Trey’Dez Green are fast, and agile, with Thomas and Anderson also factoring in the return game. Green, at 6-7 is a matchup problem in the redzone, but his participation is questionable for this game. Upfront Nussmeier will need the availability of center Braelin Moore, the Virginia Tech transfer who has been solid in the first two games. With Caleb Banks set to make his season debut the Gator will look to replicate the push they got upfront last year, and the absence of Moore could be key.

The Gators did a great job against Nussmeier last season forcing him off his spots and confusing him with the “creeper pressures” that are highly effective when the Gators get a push in the interior. The Gator defense has been solid but the talent level of LSU on the outside could be the best they see all season. LSU will look to establish Durham early and then pick and choose their spots over the top. USF had success on the perimeter with the screen game and if you miss Thomas and Brown in space the fight song may follow. Brown has five career kickoff returns for touchdowns including a 99-yard TD against the Gators last season. 

LSU Defense

Key Players: #33 LB West Weeks (6-2, 235, Gr.), #40 LB Whit Weeks (6-2, 225, Jr.), #42 LB Davhon Keys (6-0, 230, So.) #7 LB Harold Perkins Jr. (6-1, 222, R-Jr.), #0 S Tamarcus Cooley (6’0, 198, R-So./NC State), #1 CB Ashton Stamps (6-0, 190, Jr.) #4 CB Mansoor Delane (6-0, 190, Sr./Virginia Tech) #44 DE Jack Pyburn (6-4, 264, Senior/Florida)

Key Matchups: Baugh and Jackson v. The Weeks Brothers and Keys, Harold Perkins v. Florida Tackles

The defense has some new and familiar faces that the Gators will have to deal with. Whit Weeks, Harold Perkins, Davhon Keys, and Ashton Stamps have all dealt with the Gators in some form or fashion. Perkins missed last season’s game but looks to be rounding into the form that made him a Freshman All-American in 2023. Perkins is fourth on the team in tackles, first in tackles for loss, and tied for the team lead in sacks. Two of three Weeks brothers on the LSU roster Whit and West have combined for 20 tackles in the first two games with West taking a more stablished role this season.

In the secondary Ashton Stamps returns as the top corner for LSU. He is joined by Virginia Tech transfer Mansoor Delane and NC State transfer Tamarcus Cooley at safety. Mansoor was Third Team All-ACC in 2024 and leads the team in pass breakups. Cooley started nine games at nickelback for the Wolfpack in 2024 and gets involved in defending the run for LSU. Cooley is third on the team in tackles with nine in the first two games.

Up front the Gators will see a familiar face on the edge.  Jack Pyburn surprised many when he chose to leave the Gators for the Bayou. Pyburn had a breakout season for the Gators in 2024 with 60 tackles, four for loss and one sack. This will be personal for all parties involved. The Offensive line, Pyburn, even Lagway, with each looking to show the other what they are missing. 

Lagway had his coming out party against LSU last season throwing for 226 and touchdown in the game. LSU will certainly focus on the Lagway and look to stifle the Gator running game that has been underwhelming after so much preseason hype. The key could be on the outside where the gators have made plays but not the explosives that the team had found with Lagway at the controls. Look for LSU to crowd the box and force Lagway, who has been inconsistent with his mechanics to make the intermediate throws he has yet to complete. Perkins is the x-factor for the defense. Versatile, fast, and physical, his matchups against Barber, Lovett and others on the edge will be the key to a Gators win or loss. 

The Skinny:  As my colleague Franz Beard wrote. “It’s LSU and Billy Napier’s status is shaky”. It’s hard to explain and even harder to understand how a team with the recruiting base, improved facilities, and NIL investment could find themselves with the big money folks already calling for Napier’s head just three weeks into the season. This was the season that was supposed to usher in Florida’s return to prominence and possibly a chance to play for it all in the College Football Playoff. Here’s the thing, all of the above could still come true. Napier could be relieved of his duties, or the gators could make the playoffs. It’s the third game; there is a lot of football to be played. The problem is two lackluster efforts to begin the season has lent itself to reason that with this schedule the Gators and Napier are doomed.

I truly believe that the Gators could go to Baton Rouge and win by two touchdowns. Or they could lose by 40. Neither would surprise me. This game has had some foggy finishes if you know what I mean, and the same embattled team got it done last year among similar circumstances. I believe that Lagway wants to and will play better as the season progresses and it may start Saturday. I however picked LSU to win this game before the USF debacle, and I am sticking with my gut based solely on what I’ve seen from both teams thus far. The Gators play hard and keep it close but the talent on both sides of the ball is better in the Bayou, particularly at the most important position on the field. LSU wins because Nussmeier is better. 

Prediction: LSU 30 Florida 17