Saturday is UCF's Super Bowl; will the Florida Gators be ready?

UCF's porous pass defense could be like target practice for Graham Mertz (Photo by Chris Spears)

A few thoughts to jump start your Monday morning:

Make no mistake about it, Saturday night at The Swamp will be the equivalent of the Super Bowl for UCF (3-1). It’s not a Big 12 matchup for the Knights, but to UCF fans, a chance to beat the Florida Gators (2-2) in Gainesville means much, much more.

We saw it in December of 2021 when UCF clocked the Gators, 29-17, in the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa. You could call this the Catfish Bowl since among bowl games it is one of the true bottom feeders, but UCF fans showed up in force at Raymond James Stadium that night and they didn’t stop celebrating for days when they ran over, under, around and through the Florida defense for 288 yards.

This was UCF’s first win ever over the Gators in football, a chance for “little brother” to punch “big brother” in the nose. The passage of time hasn’t changed a thing. UCF fans still feel the need to punch big brother Florida in the nose. UCF wants more than just the respect that membership in a power conference offers. The Big 12 is important for sure, but UCF is the only Big 12 school in the state of Florida. The next closest Big 12 school to UCF is West Virginia, some 889 miles away as the crow flies. UCF doesn’t have to live with droves of WVU fans on a daily basis.

They do have to share the same state with the Gators and the only way to earn respect is to beat the Gators. And, what better place to do it than The Swamp? That this game is so important to UCF’s measure of in-state self-esteem and so critical to Florida head coach Billy Napier’s job security probably has a lot to do with the Gators being 1-point favorites at home.

Beating UCF isn’t going to save Napier’s job but losing to the Knights might cause powerful boosters to call in their markers with the UF administration, which is certainly feeling blowtorch-level heat. Figure that even with a win Napier is on a week-to-week survival mode given that Florida’s next four opponents are No. 4 Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia and Texas.

For the Gators to prevent UCF from turning The Swamp into its own personal playground, they are going to have to figure a way to stuff a UCF ground game that averages 326 yards a game, second nationally to Army. Florida’s run defense has been AWOL the last two games, giving up 310 yards to Texas A&M and 240 to Mississippi State.

If the Gators are unable to stop UCF’s running game, they’ll have to win this in shootout fashion with their passing game. That, of course, depends on Florida’s offensive line giving Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway adequate time to throw. Given UCF’s leaky pass defense (TCU and Colorado combined for 692 yards and seven TDs) and inadequate pass rush (three sacks in four games) this could be target practice for Mertz and Lagway. Mertz is hitting 75 percent of his passes for 8.7 per attempt while Lagway is hitting 66.7 percent for 12.1 per attempt.

In a best case scenario, the week off since the Mississippi State win allowed the Gators to get their defensive act together and iron out the pass protection problems on the offensive line. If the Gators were unable to resolve either of those two issues, Saturday night could be disastrous.

Associated Press top 25: 1. Alabama 4-0; 2. Texas 5-0; 3. Ohio State 4-0; 4. Tennessee 4-0; 5. Georgia 3-1; 6. Oregon 4-0; 7. Penn State 4-0; 8. Miami 5-0; 9. Missouri 4-0; 10. Michigan 4-0; 11. Southern California 3-1; 12. Ole Miss 4-1; 13. LSU 4-1; 14. Notre Dame 4-1; 15. Clemson 3-1; 16. Iowa State 4-0; 17. BYU 5-0; 18. Utah 4-1; 19. Oklahoma 4-1; 20. Kansas State 4-1; 21. Boise State 3-1; 22. Louisville 3-1; 23. Indiana 5-0; 24. Illinois 4-1; 25. (TIE) Texas A&M 4-1 and UNLV 4-0

AFCA Coaches top 25: 1. Texas 5-0; 2. Alabama 4-0; 3. Ohio State 4-0; 4. Tennessee 4-0; 5. Georgia 3-1; 6. Oregon 4-0; 7. Penn State 4-0; 8. Miami 5-0; 9. Missouri 4-0; 10. Michigan 4-1; 11. Ole Miss 4-1; 12. LSU 4-1; 13. Notre Dame 4-1; 14. Clemson 3-1; 15. Southern California 3-1; 16. Iowa State 4-0; 17. Oklahoma 4-1; 18. Utah 4-1; 19. BYU 5-0; 20. Kansas State 4-1; 21. Texas A&M 4-1; 22. Louisville 3-1; 23. UNLV 4-0; 24. Indiana 4-0; 25. Illinois 4-1

SEC FOOTBALL

No. 1 Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC): Ryan Williams, who scored the game-winning touchdown against Georgia on a spectacular catch/run, has caught 16 passes for 462 yards (26.88 yards per catch) and five touchdowns. He’s only 17 years old and a freshman … Jalen Milroe threw for 374 yards and ran for 117 against Georgia. Most betting sites have him the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Next week: at Vanderbilt (2-2, 0-1 SEC)

Arkansas (3-2, 1-1 SEC): The Razorbacks move the ball extremely well (495 yards per game), but they have troubles hanging on to it. The Razorbacks have lost four fumbles and thrown five interceptions … Ja’Quinden Jackson has run for 509 yards. Next week: No. 4 Tennessee (4-0, 1-0 SEC)

Auburn (2-3, 0-2 SEC): Payton Thorne threw for three touchdowns against Oklahoma, but he threw a pick six with four minutes left that cost the Tigers the game … The Tigers rank dead last in the SEC in turnovers with six fumbles lost and nine interceptions thrown. Next week: at No. 5 Georgia (3-1, 1-1 SEC)

No. 5 Georgia (3-1, 1-1 SEC): Carson Beck threw for 439 yards and three touchdowns against Alabama, but he also threw his first three interceptions of the year, plus fumbled the ball away once … Georgia was only 3-15 on third down against Bama, but 5-5 on fourth down. Next week: Auburn (2-3, 0-2 SEC)

Kentucky (3-2, 1-2 SEC): The Kentucky defense held Ole Miss to just 92 rushing yards. The Rebels had run for at least 200 yards in each of their previous four games … Brock Vandagriff had his best game of the season against Ole Miss, throwing for 243 yards and a TD without throwing an interception. Next week: Open

No. 16 LSU (4-1, 1-0 SEC): Garrett Nussmeier has thrown for 1,656 yards (8.3 per attempt) with 15 TDPs and only four interceptions … The Tigers have converted 31-60 on third down this season. Next week: Open

Mississippi State (1-4, 0-2 SEC): The open date couldn’t have come soon enough for the Bulldogs, who have to refurb the offense to fit the skills of redshirt freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr. Next week: Open

No. 9 Missouri (4-0, 1-0 SEC): The Tigers allow only 219 yards per game, which is second in the SEC, third nationally … Former Gators Chris McClellan is third on the team with 17 tackles. Next week: at No. 2 Texas A&M (4-1, 2-0 SEC)

No. 19 Oklahoma (4-1, 1-1 SEC): Through five games, the Sooners have forced 13 opponent turnovers. The Sooners have five interceptions and eight fumble recoveries … In his first start at quarterback, freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. completed 10-15 passes for 161 yards while running for 69 and a TD. Next week: Open

No. 12 Ole Miss (4-1, 0-1 SEC): Penalties continue to be an issue for the Rebels, who average 8.2 per game for -83.4 yards. That’s dead last in the SEC. Pass interference calls were costly in the 20-17 loss to Kentucky … The Rebels had at least 607 yards of offense in their first four games, but only 353 against Kentucky. Next week: at South Carolina (3-1, 1-1 SEC)

South Carolina (3-1, 2-1 SEC): The Gamecocks, who have 14 sacks in four games, have to be salivating about getting to Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart, who was sacked four times by Kentucky. Next week: No. 12 Ole Miss (4-1, 0-1 SEC)

No. 4 Tennessee (4-0, 1-0 SEC): The Vols are No. 2 nationally in total defense (176 yards per game). They will have to deal with an Arkansas offense that is averaging 495 yards per game. Next week: at Arkansas (3-2, 1-1 SEC)

No. 2 Texas (5-0, 1-0 SEC): For all the talk about the Texas offense, the defense ranks sixth nationally, giving up just 228.2 yards per game and 3.75 yards per play … Arch Manning threw for 324 yards and two TDs plus ran for another in the Longhorns’ win over Mississippi State. Next week: Open

No. 25 Texas A&M (4-1, 2-0 SEC): The Aggies held Arkansas to 100 rushing yards while sacking QB Taylen Green three times … The win over Arkansas was the Aggies’ third straight with Marcel Reed at QB. Reed threw for two touchdowns and ran for one against the Razorbacks. Next week: No. 9 Missouri (4-0, 1-0 SEC)

Vanderbilt (2-2, 0-1 SEC): New Mexico State transfer quarterback Diego Pavia is thriving at Vanderbilt under Tim Beck, who was his offensive coordinator last year at NMSU. Beck has the Commodores scoring 37 points a game while Pavia has thrown for 721 yards and six TDs. Pavia has run for 279 yards and two TDs. Next week: No. 1 Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC)

AROUND THE STATE

Florida Atlantic (2-3, 0-1 American): The Owls struggle in the passing game because they keep completing passes to the other team. So far FAU has two TDPs and six interceptions thrown. Next week: Open

Florida International (2-3, 1-0 Conference USA): The Panthers won their Conference USA opener, bolting out to a 14-0 lead over Louisiana Tech, then holding on for a 17-10 win. Next week: Open

Florida State (1-4, 1-3 ACC): The Seminoles made it five consecutive games with fewer than 300 yards of offense. FSU ranks 125th nationally in total offense at 278.2 yards per game. Next week: No. x Clemson (3-1, 2-0 ACC)

No. 8 Miami (5-0, 1-0 ACC): It took a controversial reversal of a touchdown call on a Hail Mary pass for Miami to escape with a 38-34 win over Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes did gain 508 yards in the game, their fifth straight game in which they’ve gained at least 500 yards. Next week: at California (3-1, 0-1 ACC)

South Florida (2-3, 0-1 American): In their three losses, the Bulls have allowed 137 points. Next week: Open

UCF (3-1, 1-1 Big 12): UCF was held to 177 rushing yards in the loss to Colorado. Coming into the game, UCF was averaging 375 yards per game on the ground. Next week: at FLORIDA (2-2, 1-1 SEC)

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Saturday night, sixth-year quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, an Atlanta native who spent the previous five years quarterbacking the Campbell Camels of the D1AA Coastal Athletic Association, completed 13-16 passes for 182 yards and three TDs while running for 119 yards and another TD to lead UNLV to a 59-14 win over Fresno State. This is important because earlier in the week Matthew Sluka, another D1AA transfer (from Holy Cross) walked out on his teammates over an alleged promise of $100,000 NIL money from one of the UNLV assistant coaches. UNLV and the collective that represents the football program say no promise was made.

Who is right and who is wrong will be determined at some point down the road, but for now Matthew Sluka has boxed himself into a corner by walking out on his teammates. Perhaps in his mind and the mind of his agent, Marcus Cromartie, he did the right thing by refusing to play. By leaving the team when he did, he can play someplace else in 2025, but honestly, what coach in his right mind wants a QB who walked out on his teammates?

That’s a dilemma facing any player who decides to enter the transfer portal if and when his coach is fired during the collegiate season. Walk out on teammates and you’ve labeled yourself a quitter and perhaps a malcontent. No coach wants that in his locker room.

Meanwhile, there is Hajj-Malik Williams, who showed what he could do when given a chance. The moment Sluka departed, teammates said Williams should have been starting at QB all along. Obviously, Williams justified their faith in him.

What this incident proves is that someone needs to come up with practical solutions to NIL in a hurry. The Sluka case and that of former Florida signee Jalen Rashada only emphasize that this is a wild west show where there are no guardrails. Sooner or later it’s going to bite someone in a very big way.