Thinking out loud on a Wednesday

THOUGHTS OF THE DAY

By Franz Beard

1. The parallels between 2018 and 2022 are startling for Billy Napier. In his first year on the job at Louisiana in 2018, the Ragin Cajuns were 4-4 after they lost to perennial Fun Belt power Appalachian State. They won three of the next four to finish the regular season 7-5, and by virtue of their win over Arkansas State, they had the tiebreaker to go to the Fun Belt Championship Game. Napier lost to App State in the league championship game and also lost to Tulane in the bowl game, but a 7-7 finish was pretty remarkable considering this team was outscored and outgained for the season.

So here are the Gators, 5-4 now but they were 4-4 after losing to Georgia. Currrently the Gators average 31.2 per game while allowing 29.2. They’ve been outgained by nine opponents, 3,973-3,874. They’ve got three games remaining against South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Florida State. Win one and they go bowling. Win two and they finish 7-5. Three? We’ll cross that bridge when we get to Tallahassee, but right now the Gators are trending in the right direction.

2. On the Ole Miss trio of Quinshon Jenkins (27), Zach Evans (25) and quarterback Jaxson Dart (22) have more explosive running plays than Florida’s Montrell Johnson Jr., Trevor Etienne and Anthony Richardson. Johnson’s 17 explosive runs include five plays that gained at least 30 yards. Etienne has three runs that gained at least 20 yards and Johnson has four runs that have gone for 40 or more yards. The three Gators have combined for 1,508 yards and a 6.1 average per carry. Overall, the Gators have 55 running plays that have gained 10 or more yards this season, which is tied for fifth in the SEC. Florida has 12 carries of at least 30 yards, eight of which have gone for more than 40.

3. As a team the Gators have run for 1,883 yards (5.92 per carry) and 24 touchdowns. With three regular season games and a bowl game remaining, the Gators are within 888 yards of the 2018 Gators, who gained 2,771 yards (5.27 per carry) and 23 TDs in 13 games. A year ago, the Gators gained 2,713 yards on the ground (5.48 per carry) and scored 26 touchdowns.

4. This is going to be a fun Florida basketball team to watch this year. Todd Golden has a lot of interchangeable parts that will allow him to match up well with nearly every team the Gators play this year. The three mortal locks to start every game barring injury are Colin Castleton, Kyle Lofton and Will Richard but the rest of the lineup could change game-by-game depending on the other team’s lineup. The Gators are going to be more explosive offensively, deeper and more physical on the defensive end. Golden believes this is going to be an NCAA Tournament team. From what we saw game one, it’s hard to argue.

5. After a remarkable Heisman Trophy season last year, there was no question Bryce Young was the best quarterback in the Southeastern Conference, but the way it stands right now, he may not even make All-SEC. If the voting for All-SEC were held today, it would be a three-way race between Stetson Bennett IV (Georgia), Hendon Hooker (Tennessee) and Jayden Daniels (LSU). Bennett has the most average stats of the bunch (2,606 passing yards, 8.9 per attempt, 11 TDPs, 130 rushing yards and 6 TDs), but he’s the only one who has won a national championship and could be the first QB to win back-to-back titles since Tommie Frazier did it for Nebraska in 1994-95.

6. The Big 12 will be signing a media deal with ESPN and Fox, contracted to begin in 2024. The deal will assure each of the 12 teams in the league a base of something in the neighborhood of $31.66 million a year. That will expand to something in the $50 million a year distribution once the College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams. It’s nothing like SEC or Big Ten money, but it isn’t that much less than they’ve been making with Texas and Oklahoma in the league. The four newbies – UCF, Houston, Cincinnati and BYU – will get a substantial raise. The question that lingers is what about Texas and Oklahoma? Will they remain in the league until 2025 or will the Big 12 negotiate a buyout ransom from the SEC and ESPN for an early release?

Georgia takes over top spot in College Football Playoff poll

It’s a clean sweep for Georgia this week. The Bulldogs are the No. 1 team in the country in both the Associated Press and AFCA Coaches polls and now they’ve taken over the top spot in the second College Football Playoff poll. Last week’s No. 1, Tennessee, dropped down to No. 5 after falling to Georgia, 27-13. LSU moved from 10th to No. 7 after beating Alabama, while Alabama dropped down to No. 9. Ole Miss (11th) and Kentucky (24th) are the other SEC teams in the poll.

CFP rankings (SEC teams bold face): 1. Georgia 9-0; 2. Ohio State 9-0; 3. Michigan 9-0; 4. TCU 9-0; 5. Tennessee 8-1; 6. Oregon 8-1; 7. LSU 7-2; 8. Southern California 8-1; 9. Alabama 7-2; 10. Clemson 8-1; 11. Ole Miss 8-1; 12. UCLA 8-1; 13. Utah 7-2; 14. Penn State 7-2; 15. North Carolina 8-1; 16. North Carolina State 7-2; 17. Tulane 8-1; 18. Texas 6-3; 19. Kansas State 6-3; 20. Notre Dame 6-3; 21. Illinois 7-2; 22. UCF 7-2; 23. Florida State 6-3; 24. Kentucky 6-3; 25. Washington 7-2

SEC football

No. 10 Alabama (7-2, 4-2 SEC): Former Alabama QB and ESPN analyst Greg McElroy says, “There needs to be a legitimate effort from Nick Saban to bring in coaches that understand what this program once looked like and what this program needs to look like.”

Arkansas (5-4, 2-3 SEC): For the Hogs to knock off No. 7 LSU, they’ll have to get the job done in the secondary where they rank next to last in the SEC in pass defense (302.1 yards per game; 17 TDPs).

Auburn (3-6, 1-5 SEC): Oregon HBC and former Georgia DC Dan Lanning says he’s not interested in the Auburn job. “The reality is the grass is not always greener and the grass is damn green in Eugene.”

No. 1 Georgia (9-0, 6-0 SEC): The Bulldogs are third nationally in total offense (514.2 yards per game) and fifth in total defense (265.2). Georgia is second in scoring defense (10.8 points per game), fifth in rushing defense (86.33 yards per game) and 15th in pass defense (179.1).

Kentucky (6-3, 3-3 SEC): The Wildcats have allowed 36 sacks in nine games. That’s 128th out of 131 Division I teams nationally.

No. 7 LSU (7-2, 5-1 SEC): Despite his mobility (619 rushing yards and 10 TDs), Jayden Daniels has been sacked 32 times. Saturday opponent Arkansas has 28 sacks, which ranks 14th nationally.

Mississippi State (6-3, 3-3 SEC): Can Mississippi State’s dink and dunk passing game (6.5 yards per attempt) against a Georgia defense that gives up only 5.7 and is coming off a game in which it limited Tennessee’s high powered passing game to 195 yards (5.9 per attempt)?

Missouri (4-5, 2-4 SEC): Amid calls for HBC Eli Drinkwitz to replace QB Brady Cook with true freshman Sam Horn, Drinkwitz says Cook “gives us everything we got.”

No. 11 Ole Miss (8-1, 4-1 SEC): Can the Rebels run the ball effectively against Alabama? The Rebels average 267.22 yards per game (5.71 per carry), which ranks second nationally. Alabama’s run defense gives up 104 (3.01 per carry), which is 11th nationally.

South Carolina (6-3, 3-3 SEC): Cornerback David Spaulding is done for the year while safety BJ Gibson and running back MarShawn Lloyd are practicing but listed day-to-day for Saturday’s game at Florida.

No. 5 Tennessee (8-1, 4-1 SEC): Hendon Hooker’s Heisman stock dropped considerably after the loss to Georgia, but his numbers are still outstanding: 71 percent completions, 281.4 yards per game, 10.1 yards per attempt and 21 TDPs. He’s also run for 355 yards and four TDs.

Texas A&M (3-6, 1-5 SEC): The computer models say the Aggies have only a 23 percent chance of winning their last three games to make a bowl.

Vanderbilt (3-6, 0-5 SEC): Vanderbilt suspended defensive backs coach Dan Jackson while the school investigates a comment he made on social media defending Kanye West … Freshman quarterback AJ Swann is out for the Kentucky game but HBC Clark Lea says he may return this season.

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12 Oklahoma (5-4, 2-4 Big 12):

No. 18 Texas (6-3, 4-2 Big 12):

SEC basketball

South Carolina (1-0) 80, South Carolina State 77

Keyontae scores 13 in K-State win over Rio Grande Valley Playing his first game since he collapsed on the court at Florida State December 12, 2020, former Gator Keyontae Johnson scored 13 points to go with two rebounds and four assists as Kansas State blew out Texas-Rio Grande Valley, 93-59. Keyontae hit 4-8 of his shots including 3-5 from 3-point range. He hit both his free throws.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: We will have another four-team College Football Playoff this year. Based on the rankings released Tuesday night, the only newbie to the party would be TCU. Now, if the playoff were to expand to 12 teams this year – the six highest-ranked conference champions and six at-large teams – this is what the playoff would look like. We still don’t know where the games would be played. If first round games are played on campus, the four teams that get a bye would then have to play at a neutral site, probably at current bowl locations. Would the top four teams be happy playing at a neutral site when the next four highest seeded teams get a home game? Those are questions that will have to be answered later, but for now, here are the teams and the games that would be played based on Tuesday night.

Conference champions (automatic bid): Georgia (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), TCU (Big 12), Oregon (Pac-12), Clemson (ACC) and Tulane (American Athletic)

At-large: Michigan (Big Ten), Tennessee (SEC), LSU (SEC), Southern California (Pac-12), Alabama (SEC) and Ole Miss (SEC)

First round byes: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Michigan and 4. TCU

First round games: 5 Tennessee vs. 12 Tulane; 6 Oregon vs. 11 Ole Miss; 7 LSU vs. 10 Clemson; 8 Southern Cal vs. 9 Alabama

Second round games: Georgia vs. Southern Cal-Alabama winner; Ohio State vs. LSU-Clemson winner; Michigan vs. Oregon-Ole Miss winner; TCU vs. Tennessee-Tulane winner.