Thoughts of the Day: August 17, 2022

A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:

GAME ONE: THE PRESSURE IS ALL ON UTAH Two weeks from Saturday, foot hits football a little after 7 p.m. and the Billy Napier Era at the University of Florida will begin against 7th-ranked Utah, which won the Pac-12 championship last year but lost to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Utah is favored to win, as it should be, but the early line out of Las Vegas is just 2.5 points. That doesn’t seem like much when you consider the Utes won 10 games last year while the Gators were a meltdown looking for a place to happen.

Most of the experts who follow Pac-12 football think Utah will win the league championship by wiping out media darlings Southern Cal and Oregon. Given the overall weakness of schedule there is thinking that Utah can run the table and do something no Pac-12 team has done since 2017, which is make the College Football Playoff.

That’s a lot of pressure for a team that hasn’t ventured east of the Mississippi since 2014 and hasn’t played an SEC team since beating Alabama in the 2008 Sugar Bowl. Alabama says it was so bummed out from losing to Florida in the SEC Championship Game that its heart wasn’t in the Sugar Bowl. Utah folks say that’s just sour grapes on the part of Alabama fans. The Utes did, after all, run the table (13-0).

That was then. This is now. Utah returns 14 starts (8 offense, 6 defense) from a team that went 10-4 in 2021. The Utes are certainly talented enough to win the Pac-12 again. They like their offense, which pounds it between the tackles and goes over the top when opponents try to stack the box. Defensively, the Utes run a 4-3 that worked pretty well against Pac-12 opponents but got lit up for 683 yards (573 passing) by Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.

Offensively, they have a stud QB in Cameron Rising (2,493 passing yards, 20 TDs; 499 rushing yards, 6 TDs last year) and a between-the-tackles thumper at running back in Tavion Thomas, all 6-2, and 238 pounds of him. He ran for 1,108 yards (5.43 per carry) and 21 TDs last year. The Utes averaged 217.21 rushing yards 5.58 yards per carry last season, which wasn’t all that much better than Florida, which averaged 208.69 yards and 5.48 per carry. Utah’s offense scored 36.1 points per game with 37 rushing TDs and 30 through the air.

Defensively, the Utes finished third in the Pac-12 in total defense, 28th nationally at 344.1 yards per game. They gave up 11 rushing touchdowns and 22 through the air, an average of 22.1 points allowed per game. The Utes force 16 turnovers, six fumbles and 10 picks.

If you go by the numbers, Utah should be very good this year. Expectations are certainly through the roof in Salt Lake City so there is pressure. A year ago, the Utes were nowhere to be found in the preseason rankings so this is new and uncharted territory. There will also be the pressure of beating an unranked Florida team. Lose to an unranked team in game one, even if it is on the road and in a hostile venue, and it can have the effect of a slow leak in a balloon.

Two other things to consider: (1) It’s fairly easy for the Gators to scout Utah, but not so easy for the Utes to scout the Gators; and (2) the heat and humidity.

Utah is going to do what Utah has done ever since Kyle Whittingham succeeded Urban Meyer back in 2005. Personnel changes every year but the schemes haven’t changed all that much and Whittingham isn’t going to tinker with an offense that was so productive last year. No matter who the coordinator is, it’s Whittingham’s defense, which is to say it’s a 4-3 with an emphasis on good tackling and stuffing the run. Billy Napier can look at film of the last 13 years and he’ll see Utah doing the same exact things. Utah can look at what Napier did at Louisiana and maybe know what to expect from a scheme standpoint, but Florida players are bigger, stronger and faster than the ones Napier had at Louisiana. There is no way that Utah can scheme for Anthony Richardson and fact is, the only O-line the Utes had to face last year that was better than the UF O-line of 2022 was Ohio State (683 yards, 48 points).

And then there is the heat. Oh it was 95 in Salt Lake on Tuesday. It gets hot in the desert. The average humidity in the month of August is expected to be mid-30s to low-40s. The average humidity in Gainesville in August is low-to-high-80s and it won’t change much once we get into September. You can’t simulate the combination of heat and humidity, particularly at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, where the playing surface is about 35-40 feet below street level. It’s a sauna in the stadium. There is nothing Utah can do to prepare for it.

Now, none of this is to say that Florida will win the season opener but the Gators will have some advantages and there is no question when you add in the weight of expectations firmly on Utah’s shoulders, it bodes well for Billy Napier’s first game as Florida’s head coach. If Napier loses game one, the national media will chalk it up to a veteran Utah team that is nationally-ranked doing what it’s supposed to do. If Utah loses, there will be record cases of apoplexy in Salt Lake and throughout the state.

The pressure is on Utah.

SEC football/basketball

Alabama: Paul Finebaum says Ohio State is Alabama’s most serious threat. “Ohio State is built for this,” Finebaum said on ESPN’s “Get Up” show … The Tuscaloosa city council approved an alcohol license for Bryant-Denny Stadium. Since when did people need a license to drink at Alabama games?

Arkansas: During their European tour, the Razorbacks committed 20 or more turnovers in three games including more than 30 against the Bakken Bears. “The turnovers are ridiculous,” head basketball coach Eric Musselman said. “Words can’t describe how concerned I am.”

Auburn: Ben Patton, who handled the placekicking duties when Anders Carlson went down with an ACL injury last year, has entered the transfer portal … The first team offensive line so far during camp is LT Kilian Zierer, LG Kam Stutts, C Tate Johnson, RG Keiondre Jones and RT Austin Troxell.

Georgia: Georgia paid Florida $1.3 million to buy out the contract of Mike White. White will be paid $3.4 million this year and $3.9 million in the last year of the contract in 2027-28.

Kentucky: Offensive coordinator Rich Scangello says, “We’ve installed almost our entire offense, so now it’s just honing in on what you’re gonna do in game plan weeks against teams.”

LSU: Arizona State transfer QB Jayden Daniels says he can tell the difference in the talent level of SEC defensive linemen from those he faced in the Pac-12.

Mississippi State: For every touchdown pass Will Rogers throws this season Simmons Erosion Control Inc. will donate $1,000 to the Mississippi Make-a-Wish Foundation … Coastal Carolina transfer Massimo Biscardi, who hit 46-57 field goals in the last four years, is expected to be the No. 1 kicker for the Bulldogs, whose kickers last year were only 14-25 on field goal attempts.

Missouri: Placekicker Harrison Mevis, who hit 23-25 field goals last year with a long of 56, says, “I want to make all the kicks this year, 92 percent is unacceptable. I’ve gotta be 100 percent this year.”

Ole Miss: The first Ole Miss scrimmage was open to the public.

South Carolina: The Gamecocks have nine transfers on scholarship this fall. QB Spencer Rattler is obviously the headliner among the transfers but the defense got a boost with the additions of former Georgia DB Lovesea Carroll and North Carolina State DE Terrell Dawkins.

Tennessee: Running back Jabari Small, who ran for 796 yards and nine TDs in 2021, has gained 15 pounds of muscle because he wants to be stronger in the second half of games and handle duties as the short yardage back.

Texas A&M: On ESPN’s “First Take” show, host Stephen A. Smith told Paul Finebaum, “I feel bad for what’s going to happen to Texas A&M when they go down to Alabama. Them boys in trouble.”

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12

Oklahoma: Linebacker T.D. Roof, son of defensive coordinator Ted Roof, is out for the season after a torn biceps injury that requires surgery.

Texas: HBC Steve Sarkisian says that “when the time is right” suspended Alabama transfer wide receiver Argiye Hall will be allowed back on the team. ‘’

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: While everybody seems so focused on the absolute brilliance (sarcasm injection here) of Big Ten commish Kevin Warren for landing what is anticipated to be a $1 billion a year mega media deal with Fox, CBS and NBC, no one seems to be paying much attention to the divorce with ESPN. Forty years of Big Ten sports on ESPN will come to an end in 2024 when the new Big Ten media deal kicks in and ESPN begins its partnership with the Southeastern Conference.

Warren should take a victory lap for getting all that money for the 16 schools that will be making up the Big Ten in 2024 and with Fox taking the noon game, CBS the game at 3:30 and NBC getting prime time on Saturday evenings, it’s a full day of Big Ten football.

In getting the big deal for the Big Ten, Warren rejected a generous bid from ESPN to be included in the Big Ten package. On the surface it would appear ESPN came out the loser, but is it really? While the Big Ten is locked in on those three networks, ESPN has the SEC, the ACC and now will have the chance to sew up the Big 12 and whatever is left of the Pac-12. The SEC will outdraw the Big Ten. Period. And while the Big Ten is trying to sell folks on another thrilling encounter between Rutgers and Northwestern to fill out its programming day, ESPN has seven networks minimum (ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPN News, SEC Network and ACC Network) and the potential for four of the power five conferences plus several Notre Dame games. Plus there is the possibility to add Disney and Hulu for streaming.

The Big 12 is locked into a media deal through 2025, but ESPN needs Oklahoma and Texas to join the SEC in 2024, so in exchange for releasing those two, ESPN can offer a media deal that is at least equal to what the Big 12 has now (more than $40 million a year). By offering a scheduling deal with the Big 12, ESPN can offer the Pac-12 a similar deal (Pac-12 teams have been getting around $33 million) which would save the league when Southern Cal and UCLA bolt. The Pac-12 has been playing games on Friday and Saturday nights. ESPN could have Friday night programming and late night Pac-12 games. The ACC has this rotten deal that won’t hit $40 million until 2026 unless it can pick up some basketball money since CBS won’t be broadcasting ACC games anymore. More money could be thrown the ACC way to encourage scheduling games with the SEC, Big 12 and Pac-12.

Meanwhile, the SEC will be distributing $100 million a year (or more) to each school when Texas and Oklahoma join the league and Notre Dame is going to remain independent with a deal that will likely land close to $100 million a year for its home games from NBC.

Most divorces are painful, but if ESPN plays its cards right, it will end up with a far better situation than what the Big Ten will get from its new media deal.