Thoughts of the day: October 5, 2022

A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:

CAN THE GATORS STOP THE RUN AGAINST MISSOURI? In Missouri’s two wins – 52-24 over a bad Louisiana Tech team whose only win is over D1AA Stephen F. Austin and 34-17 over D1AA independent Abilene Christian – the Tigers (2-3, 0-2 SEC) ran for 523 yards. In their three losses to Kansas State, Auburn and Georgia, the Tigers have a combined 329 yards on 95 carries. That’s 3.46 per carry. When Missouri can’t run the ball, the entire offense slows to a crawl. In the three losses, the Tigers have a combined 824 yards of offense and only 48 points.

In Florida’s five games, the Gators (3-2, 0-2 SEC) have given up 966 yards (4.6 per carry) and 10 rushing touchdowns. Utah (230), South Florida (286) and Tennessee (227) combined for 743 yards (5.85 per carry) and eight touchdowns. The only game in which the Gators looked anything close to adept in stopping the run was against Kentucky, which managed only 70 yards on 48 carries. Of course, Kentucky hasn’t run the ball effectively on anyone this season so we can’t really read that much into it.

Saturday, both the Gators and the Tigers will be trying for their first SEC win of the season and whoever proves capable of stopping the run has a really good chance of getting the W. Florida averages 210.2 yards per game on the ground, 6.22 per carry which is fourth nationally. Florida has three outstanding running backs in Montrell Johnson Jr. (38-282, 4 TDs), Trevor Etienne (35-223, 2 touchdowns) and Nay’Quan Wright (39-153, 2 TDs) plus quarterback Anthony Richardson (42-241, 5 TDs) is capable of busting a long gainer any time he breaks containment in the pocket.

Other than allowing Kansas State to run for 235 yards (5.47 per carry) in game two, Missouri has done a rather nice job stuffing the run. In their other four games, the Tigers have given up just 368 yards and 2.83 per carry. Last Saturday, the Tigers held Georgia’s running game fairly intact until the fourth quarter when they just gave out of gas.

Even though Florida’s passing game has exploded for 845 yards in the last two games, we’re probably going to see something from Missouri that bears resemblance to what Kentucky and Tennessee ran against the Gators. Both Kentucky and Tennessee slowed down Florida’s running game and dared Richardson to beat them throwing the football. Kentucky had success both against the run and the pass. Tennessee held the Gators to 3.36 per rushing attempt but was torched in the passing game (Richardson threw for 453 yards).

Florida’s chances to score their first SEC win will probably come down to the ground game. Can the Gators run it on Missouri and can they stop Mizzou from running the ball?

Other UF sports

Men’s golf: Behind Fred Biondi’s final round 64, the Gators moved up five places to finish tied for ninth at the Ben Hogan Collegiate Tournament played at Colonia Country Club in Fort Worth. The Gators finished +9 for the tournament, won by North Carolina at -15. The tournament featured 16 of the nation’s top golf teams including eight who made the quarterfinals of the NCAA Championships back in the spring.

Women’s golf: The Gators finished 12th at the Windy City Classic at Exmoor Country Club in Chicago. Southern Cal won the tournament at +3. Annabell Fuller finished 12th for UF.

SEC football/basketball

No. 1 Alabama (5-0, 2-0 SEC): CBS analyst Barrett Sallee on Saturday’s Alabama-Texas A&M game in Tuscaloosa: “This could be the biggest blowout in this series since Kenny Hill lost 59-0. I just think with Texas A&M’s offense, I don’t care if Max Johnson plays or not, that offense is flat out horrendous. Alabama can stop Devon Archane, so when that happens, what’s Texas A&M going to do? They can’t do anything.” Alabama is favored by a mere 24 points.

Arkansas (3-2, 1-2 SEC): If KJ Jefferson is unable to go Saturday in Starkville, the Hogs will be playing either Cade Fortin or Malik Hornsby at quarterback. Fortin has completed 65-130 passes in his four years at North Carolina, South Florida and Arkansas, good for 645 yards, one touchdown and two picks. Hornsby is 5-12 for 46 yards passing but 29-156 rushing the ball for one touchdown … The Razorbacks are 8-point underdogs Saturday.

Auburn (3-2, 1-1 SEC): Auburn is a 30-point underdog for Saturday’s game in Athens against Georgia. If Auburn loses by 30 or more, bet the farm that Bryan Harsin will be fired Sunday and forced to squeeze by in the immediate future on an $18 million buyout.

No. 2 Georgia (5-0, 2-0 SEC): Linebacker Smael Mondon and wide receiver AD Mitchell, both with injured ankles, are practicing but their status for Saturday’s game with Auburn is still unclear … The Bulldogs are 30-point favorites Saturday. They have been huge favorites in each of their two previous games but failed to cover.

No. 13 Kentucky (4-1, 1-1 SEC): The Wildcats, who have built their winning reputation under Mark Stoops as a grind it out team, have yet to run for more than 108 yards or average even 3.0 yards per carry in any of their five games so far … Kentucky is a 10.5-point home favorite against South Carolina Saturday … Last year’s national player of the year Oscar Tschiebwe has seen enough of freshman center Ugonna Onyenso as a future college basketball star. Tschiebwe says, “I see him blocking shots. I see him like a new Anthony Davis blocking shots.”

No. 25 LSU (4-1, 2-0 SEC): In a Wilson Alexander tweet, QB Jayden Daniels called a players’ only meeting between the quarterback and wide receiver rooms “to discuss the passing game and work on their trust in one another.” LSU threw for only 85 yards in last week’s win over Auburn. It should be noted that LSU’s offensive line has allowed Daniels to be sacked 16 times … LSU is a 3-point home underdog to Tennessee Saturday.

No. 23 Mississippi State (4-1, 1-1 SEC): Mike Leach says he essentially ignores the polls. “There’s no stopping point on the polls,” he says. “Just worry about now and what you can control. Today it’s put together the best game plan you can. Tomorrow, it’s have the best practice you can. So it goes.” … The Bulldogs are favored by eight Saturday when Arkansas comes to town.

Missouri (2-3, 0-2 SEC): The Gators can expect a heavy dose of tunnel screens and passes that travel less than 10 yards against Missouri Saturday. The only true downfield threat is Dominic Lovett who has caught 27 passes for 460 yards (17.04 per catch) and two touchdowns. No other receiver is averaging more than 11.4 yards per catch.

No. 9 Ole Miss (5-0, 1-0 SEC): In getting off to their first 5-0 start since 2014, the Rebels have picked off four passes, recovered five fumbles and sacked opposing quarterbacks 16 times, which is a 5-way tie for 11th in the nation and second in the SEC … Ole Miss is only favored by 18 on the road Saturday at Vanderbilt … Guard Daeshun Ruffin, who was averaging 12.2 points before going down with a season-ending knee injury last year, has been cleared for non-contact drills and could be ready to go for the season opener.

South Carolina (3-2, 0-2 SEC): The expectations for Oklahoma transfer quarterback Spencer Rattler are through the roof, but so far he’s thrown more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (4). One of the biggest problems for Rattler is protection. He’s spent a lot of time running for his life and he’s been sacked 10 times … The Gamecocks are 10.5-point road underdogs against Kentucky.

No. 8 Tennessee (5-0, 1-0 SEC): The Vols are breaking out the smoke grey uniforms for their road trip to LSU Saturday, where they are 3-point favorites … Indiana State transfer point guard Tyreke Key says the difference in playing at a mid-major school and in the SEC is “the big men. Everybody’s got good, fast guards but you don’t see the big men there like the big men here.”

Texas A&M (3-2, 1-1 SEC): Paul Finebaum on the status of Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M – “The buyout, should he be fired, is $90 million. Essentially Jimbo Fisher is his own boss. He does whatever he wants … His predecessor, Kevin Sumlin, was fired with a better record than Jimbo Fisher has now.” … The Aggies are 24-point underdogs at Alabama Saturday night.

Vanderbilt (3-2, 0-1 SEC): Starting left guard Ben Cox and starting defensive tackle Myles Cecil are back from injury and both will play Saturday against Ole Miss. The Commodores are 18-point underdogs … Freshman defensive tackle Bradley Mann is out for the rest of the season after undergoing surgery for an injury suffered a couple of weeks ago against Alabama.

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12

Oklahoma (3-2, 0-2 Big 12): Former Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight on Oklahoma starting the Big 12 portion of the season 0-2 – “You’re not going to the Big 12 title game. If is a failed season already in Norman if you ask me.” The Sooners are 7-point underdogs for their Red River Rivalry showdown with Texas.

Texas (3-2, 1-1 Big 12): Former Texas HBC Tom Herman is emerging as one of the names on the hot list to replace Herm Edwards at Arizona State.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The SMU Mustangs (2-2, 0-0 American) will be playing UCF (3-1, 0-0 American) tonight at the Bounce House in Orlando. UCF is favored to win by three, but probably will win by more because of the turmoil within the SMU program. On3 Sports is reporting that four SMU players are going to sit out the remainder of the season to preserve their redshirt, then transfer out.

Under the new NCAA transfer portal guidelines, there are only a couple of windows open for transfers to enter the portal and leave their current program for another without having to sit a year. The four kids from SMU can’t put their names in the portal until December, but the damage is already done and there should be plenty of concern that this is the kind of situation that could spread like wildfire.

Here's a hypothetical for you: A school – we’ll call it Western Wenatchee A&M – has a coach that players despise, but the coach has an ironclad buyout and the school hasn’t the money it would take to fire him. So, all the players on the two-deep who have eligibility remaining beyond the current season, decide they’ll quit after four games to preserve their redshirt. Let’s say it’s 30 players. WWAMU has only 75 on scholarship and five are done for the season because of injuries. Thirty leave and now the Fighting Aardvarks have only 40 scholarship players available. A season is cancelled and a football program that is struggling with finances has just taken three laser-guided supercavitation torpedoes at midship is sinking fast.

This may sound like overreaction, but how many saw the growing flood of transfers in football and basketball that has become an epidemic? Back in the summer, someone reported that more than half of the players in the football transfer portal didn’t have a scholarship. It’s probably worse for basketball. It’s a crisis that setting transfer portal windows only partially addresses.

If the NCAA, in its infinite wisdom, wishes to for once tackle a situation before it becomes a full-fledged, out-of-control tsunami, then there is a simple solution: Quit on your team for anything short of an extraordinary reason during the season, you sit a year when you transfer out and you lose your redshirt. That makes sense, but when has the NCAA ever done anything that required a measure of common sense? Given the choice of dealing with an issue before it gets out of control or doing nothing, the NCAA always seems to wait until it’s too late.