Thoughts of the day: October 7, 2022

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

Depending on your frame of reference, the Missouri Tigers (2-3, 0-2 SEC) are either a very dangerous team that is better than their record or else they’re pretty bad and last week’s close encounter with Georgia is more about Georgia playing poorly (or bored) than Missouri playing well.

Of course, we can say something similar about the Gators (3-2, 0-2 SEC), whose record could be anything from 5-0 to 1-4 right now. Both Florida losses were giveaways, games the Gators could have won if they hadn’t committed one dumb mistake after another. Of course, you could say the same thing about two of Florida’s three wins. The Gators did everything but give away the wins over Utah and South Florida. Only the win over Eastern Washington was a no-doubter, and well it should have been since the Eagles are

So maybe we should call Saturday’s homecoming encounter with Mizzou at The Swamp a woulda, coulda, shoulda game. Both teams think they woulda, coulda and shoulda done much better in their five previous games. That brings us to this one and the question has to be which team will show up? Will it be the Missouri team that had Georgia on the ropes or the one that got its doors blown off by K-State? Or maybe the team that did everything right but win on the road at Auburn?

And which Florida team is going to show up? The Gators played good enough defense to beat Kentucky but they gave the Wildcats 23 of their points in a 26-16 loss. Gators ran the ball all over Utah and lit up Tennessee in the passing game. They were fortunate to beat Utah. Tennessee was fortunate to beat the Gators. In both those games the defense was somewhat of a no-show.

For Missouri to win Saturday, the Tigers are going to have to run the football and run it consistently, something they haven’t done in any of their three losses. For Florida to win, the Gators are going to have to balance out the offense and probably more important, play with the lead. One way to keep the Tigers from running the ball is to combine some early touchdowns with a few stops to force them to throw the ball. It’s hard to win games on the road when you can’t run the football with any consistency.

The Gators can expect Missouri’s defense to focus on clogging up the running lanes, therefore forcing Anthony Richardson to win the game with his arm. It’s a strategy Tennessee used with some success against the run only to have Richardson torch the Vols for 453 passing yards. If Richardson can hit some throws early to Justin Shorter and Ricky Pearsall, then the Tigers will have to loosen up that run strategy. If Richardson can get outside the tackles with run-pass options, Florida can open this game up in a hurry.

Defensively, Florida has to make the Tigers one-dimensional by taking the out the running game. When Mizzou has to throw on every down, the Gators have to (1) set the edge to keep the QB from getting outside and (2) the safeties can’t forget their assignments.

This is a very winnable game, but it’s dangerous if the Gators leave a substantial portion of their game back in the locker room. The expectation here is that Richardson puts up Tennessee numbers and the defense makes progress. The Sayer says sooth!: FLORIDA 34, Misery Index 17

The SEC Soothsayer

Texas A&M (3-2, 1-1 SEC) at No. 1 Alabama (5-0, 2-0 SEC): Just four days before the Texas A&M Aggies played their first SEC football game against the Florida Gators on September 8, 2012, Melissa Etheridge released the song “Just What You Asked For.” The Aggies wanted to be in the SEC and they got exactly what they asked for. Here we are, 10 years and still no SEC or West Division championships later, and the Aggies have another one of those just what they asked for moments. Back in the summer Jimbo and the Aggies were all but begging for Big Bad Bama. Well, sometimes you get what you ask for. Jimbo should pray for St. Nick the Merciful. Nick probably asks God to allow him to be the instrument of his vengeance. The Sayer says sooth!: Paybacks Are Hell 38, Mercy Mercy Me 10

Auburn (3-2, 1-1 SEC) at No. 2 Georgia (5-0, 2-0 SEC): Under normal circumstances, this would be as good a week as any for those zany Auburn boosters to fire their coach. They would love for Bryan Harsin to say “Take This Job and Shove It” but that would mean walking away from an $18 million buyout. The man may be a lot of things, but crazy isn’t one of them. Is he crazy enough to beat Georgia Saturday? The Poodles might be the most unimpressive 29.5-point favorite in recent member. Imagine the state of mind in the Peach State if they lose or have to win a white knuckler. The Sayer says sooth!: Widespread Panic 30, Waiting for the Axe to Fall 17

No. 8 Tennessee (5-0, 1-0 SEC) at No. 25 LSU (4-1, 2-0 SEC): You would be amazed at how many people – many probably from the state of Louisiana – who think the R.E.M hit “Man on the Moon” is about faking Neal Armstrong’s walk on the moon in 1969. A conspiracy, they’ll tell you. Many of those same folks probably think CBS and ESPN are engaged in a more sinister conspiracy theory because instead of playing Tennessee at night, the LSU Tigers have to play the Vols in broad daylight, a game that will start at 11 a.m. in Red Stick. Tiger Stadium is rather formidable after dark when 100,000 liquored up Cajuns are trying to scream themselves sober so they can start drinking again right after LSU wins. At 11 a.m. they’ll all be hung over from drinking the night away while listening to Rufus Jaganeaux croon “Opelousas Sostan” so they won’t be nearly as loud or obnoxious. Win this one and every still in East Tennessee will be going 24/7 to produce enough sour mash for the masses next week when Big Bad Bama comes to Neyland. The Sayer says sooth!: Chug-a-lug Chug-a-lug 34, Conspiracy Theory 21

No. 9 Ole Miss (5-0, 1-0 SEC) at Vanderbilt (3-2, 0-1 SEC): Gloria Vanderbilt has already won three games this year, which is one more than the previous two seasons combined. So, that’s progress! Of course none of these wins have been against SEC opponents. They’ve lost their last 22 SEC games, but as Dusty Springfield sang back in the 1960s, “Wishin’ and hopin’ and thinkin’ and prayin’” … it will take all that and more to beat Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss Saturday. The way the Rebels are running the ball and playing defense, there’s every good chance they’ll be 9-0 on November 12 when Big Bad Bama stops in for a swell time in The Grove. The spread is 17. It won’t be that close. The Sayer says sooth!: No horse shoes or hand grenades necessary 35, Designer Blue Jeans 10

South Carolina (3-2, 0-2 SEC) at No. 13 Kentucky (4-1, 1-1 SEC): Miles Nielsen wrote a song called “Kentucky (You’re Killing Me).” Wildcat fans can relate after they fumbled the ball away deep in Ole Miss territory on their final two possessions, missed an extra point and had a field goal blocked, all in a 3-point loss to the Rebels. Florida fans can also relate. The Gators gave away their game with UK in Gainesville so depending on how you look at things, UK could be 3-2, 4-1 or 5-0, depending on your perspective. Saturday, the South Carolina Gamecocks travel to the state that gave us Kentucky Fried Chicken. Fans in Lexington have to be asking which UK team will bother to show up. The Sayer says sooth!: Colonel Sanders 24, Chicken Fricassee 17

Arkansas (3-2, 1-2 SEC) at No. 23 Mississippi State (4-1, 1-1 SEC): There is potentially bad news, very bad news and even worse news for the boys from Fayette Nam. First the potentially bad news. QB KJ Jefferson still hasn’t been cleared from concussion protocol, but perhaps he will be. Potentially bad transforms to good if he can play although you have to wonder would Arkansas take that kind of chance after what happened to Tua a couple of weeks ago. The really bad news and this is really bad news. The Hogs’ secondary should be nicknamed The Burnt Ends. The even worse news. Mississippi State QB Will Rogers has already thrown for 19 TDPs this year and he completes 73 percent of his passes. The Sayer says sooth!: More Cowbell Please 28, Pulled Pork 14

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12

Oklahoma (3-2, 0-2 Big 12) vs. Texas (3-2, 1-1 Big 12) in Dallas: The Man with the Million Dollar Mullet is back for Texas, complete with a brand new NIL deal that will keep his Ferrari gassed up. He’s very cocky but as Texas philosopher Kinky Friedman once said, “If you have the choice between humble and cocky, go with cocky. There’s always time to be humble later.” If Dillon Gabriel doesn’t play, the Okies haven’t a chance. Judging by their defense last week against TCU, they may not have a chance even if he does play. The Longhorns aren’t all that good, but right now they look better than the folks from Norman. The Sayer says sooth!: Achy Breaky Mullet 38, Norman is that you? 28

Football played somewhere other than the SEC

No. 18 UCLA (5-0, 2-0 Pac-12): The Bruins play their home games in the Rose Bowl (capacity 92,000) in Pasadena, some 25 miles from the UCLA campus in Westwood. In four home games so far, the Bruins have drawn 131,557 fans, an average of 32,889 per game. They play No. 11 Utah (4-1, 2-0 Pac-12) at the Rose Bowl Saturday in one of only matchups in the country where both teams are ranked. It may be an upset if the stadium is more than half-full.

No. 19 Kansas (5-0, 2-0 Big 12): The ESPN Game Day crew will be in Lawrence for the matchup with No. 17 TCU (4-0, 2-0 Big 12). With a win, Kansas can be bowl eligible for the first time since 2008. When Kansas gets its sixth win of the season it will be one more than the three previous seasons COMBINED.

No. 6 Southern California (5-0, 2-0 Pac-12): The Trojans are 13-point favorites to whip up on their country cousins from the Paloose, aka Washington State (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12). Keep a close eye on this one because (a) Wazzoo’s pass rush (18 sacks) is fierce and (b) Cameron Ward is lightning in a bottle if he can avoid turning the ball over.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: A week ago Mike Leach was offering marriage advice to an SEC Network sideline reporter, suggesting she elope rather than deal with all the hassles of a big wedding. Leach, who has a law degree from Pepperdine, has opinions about nearly everything. He’s funny so often that folks don’t necessarily know when to take him seriously.

One thing for certain, he’s serious about the future of college football. Speaking to Ross Dellenger of Sports Illustrated, Leach suggested earlier in the week that it’s time to categorize college football players into two groups – amateurs and professionals. He thinks the amateurs should be able to transfer freely and should be given a $100,000 bonus if they stay their entire career at one school. Professionals, he believes, should be paid a salary and can be traded and cut. He believes in salary pools where schools are limited in their spending.

It sounds quirky, but then again, Mike Leach is a quirky kind of guy. Maybe his ideas aren’t so far-fetched however. Did you ever think 10 years ago that we would have what amounts to free agency and kids getting NIL deals for millions of dollars even before they play a game?