( Photo courtesy of UAA) LSU 20, Florida 10. Another very winnable game with an all-too familiar result. In case you are counting, this is the 21 st loss in the 41-game Florida coaching career of Billy Napier. It is also the 11 th loss of the 21 that could be categorized as a giveaway. If the Gators could simply avoid the rash of mistakes that prevents them from winning far too often, Billy Napier would be sitting pretty these days.   Instead, it seems that it’s only a matter of time before Scott Stricklin and the powers that be at the University of Florida get with Napier’s lawyers to negotiate a buyout. With a roadie against 5 th -ranked Miami, 7 th -ranked Texas following an open date, and then another roadie against 16 th -ranked Texas A&M, it seems it is a matter of when not if Napier walks away with somewhere in the neighborhood of $22 million.   When that happens, all hell breaks loose for the seventh time since Steve Spurrier shocked the college football world by walking away from the Gators on January 5, 2002, ending the most successful 12-year run in school history (122-27-1). Of the six coaching changes since Spurrier, only Urban Meyer walked away on his own volition. Four others have been fired. When and if Napier is a goner, he would be the fifth fired coach since 2001 and the fourth since 2011. Three games into his fourth season at UF, Napier is now within six losses of what it took Spurrier 12 years to accumulate.   Already, message boards are filling up with demands that Stricklin pull the plug on Napier now and with speculation who’s next and how much is it going to take to lure him to Gainesville?   It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Napier was a hot commodity when he was hired from Louisiana in December of 2022 to succeed Dan Mullen, fired after going 34-15 in four seasons. Sun Belt success hasn’t translated into wins on the Southeastern Conference level. The way the Gators ended the 2024 season with four straight wins, everyone thought Napier had the Florida program on firm enough footing that championship seasons were no longer distant blips on some radar screen.   Those four wins, however, have been nothing more than an overdose of novocaine that leaves us feeling like we do when we leave the dentist, afraid to drink even though we’re thirsty because our lips and tongue are so numb.   The Gators are now 1-2 after this loss and only the most optimistic among us can foresee wins on the immediate horizon. Next Saturday night in Miami it’s the 5 th -ranked Hurricanes who blew the doors off the same South Florida team that beat the Gators at The Swamp last week. Follow that up with an open date, then 7 th -ranked Texas at home and 16 th -ranked Texas A&M in College Station.     Doesn’t look promising does it? The next three games after the Aggies don’t look so appealing either. Mississippi State is off to a 3-0 start and playing substantially better than last year. Kentucky is always a beast for the Gators in Lexington. And then there is 6 th -ranked Georgia, which found a way to finagle an overtime win over Tennessee in Knoxville Saturday afternoon.   There is no good time to fire a football coach, but after these last two games, Jeremy Foley’s famous quote “What must be done eventually must be done immediately” seems to be making the rounds of Gator Nation at a rather frantic pace. Do the people who write the checks tell Stricklin the money is in the bank, go ahead and pink slip Napier? Do they need more time to gather the necessary financial resources? Is it best to do it now or following the Miami game since there is an open date?   To fire Napier after game four would give underclassmen a chance to bag the season and take a redshirt. That’s a real problem and don’t think for a nanosecond that the people who will ultimately make the decision haven’t thought about it.   Another important question: Who on the current staff could take over as head coach and do anything more than toot a whistle at practice and run out of the tunnel ahead of the team nine more games? That question alone is one that should have Stricklin pacing the floor while hoping for a divine revelation to get the program through troubled times with the least amount of damage.   Stricklin just got a lengthy contract extension. He’s an outstanding fund raiser and he deserves plenty of credit for hiring basketball coach Todd Golden, who won an NCAA title in year three and seems to have the Gators poised to be a major player on the national scene for years to come. If and when he fires Napier, Stricklin will be hiring his THIRD football coach since Jim McElwain lied his way out of a job in 2017. Three coaches in eight years, not exactly one of the great track records.   Do the big money boosters have enough faith in Stricklin that they will abide by his judgment even if it means keeping Napier the rest of the season? Or will they turn on him? It wouldn’t be the first time an athletic director faced the wrath of his money people.   Seeing Napier unable to get his team to eliminate the kind of mistakes that prevent winning is painful. He’s one of the nicest people you would want to meet, the kind of mentor that you would wish for your own kids, but being nice and turning Florida’s football culture into a model of decorum has not translated into enough wins. In part, the lack of success is Napier’s own doing. Louisiana was a scale model of what it takes to win at a place like Florida so while Napier could keep a thumb on everything in Lafayette, it has been like a dike with more holes than he has fingers in Gainesville.   Florida’s playcalling is stale and predictable. DJ Lagway threw five interceptions against LSU, the most any UF quarterback has thrown in a game in 33 years. Four of the five picks were thrown into multiple coverages. The 58-yard interception return for a third quarter touchdown was simply a great play on the ball, but even that throw seemed telegraphed. As was the case against South Florida, Lagway’s footwork seemed in disarray, which begs the question who’s teaching him fundamentals. He’s a serious talent but shouldn’t serious talents get serious coaching?   The offensive line was supposed to be a strength of the team and perhaps the best in the SEC but through three games the struggles are obvious. For the second straight week penalties slowed the offense to a crawl. In the first quarter, a holding call on Hayden Hansen turned what would have been second-and-three at the LSU 36 into first and 20 at the UF 47. Three plays later on third and long – and obvious passing down – Lagway threw into triple coverage for the first of his picks.   The second and most egregious of the penalties was a hold on Knijeah Harris that nullified an 87-yard Lagway to Jadan Baugh touchdown with 3:46 remaining in the first quarter that would have put the Gators up two scores.   In the third quarter, the Gators were moving the ball when guard Rod Kearney was flagged for a hold that nullified a 5-yard Lagway to Hayden pass. Rather than third-and-five at the LSU 36, it was third-and-20 at the UF 49. Two plays later Lagway was picked off by Dashawn Spears, who sprinted 58 yards for a TD that made it 20-10.   Late in the third quarter, Harris got nailed for holding again. Instead of third-and-five at the LSU 46 it was second and 20 at the UF 42. Once again, playing way behind the sticks snuffed out a potential scoring drive.   Florida allowed three sacks and at least four quarterback pressures with most of LSU’s pressure coming over the guards. Florida has been rotating four guards and can’t seem to find two that can play.   In the fourth quarter, with the game still within reach, Lagway was picked off twice. The Gators had third-and-nine at the LSU 36 when Lagway threw into double coverage in the end zone where it was intercepted. The last interception was with 2:07 remaining in the game. On first and 10 at the LSU 39, Lagway’s short pass to Aidan Mizell was picked off, ending any chance the Gators might come from behind.   The Florida defense only gave up only one offensive touchdown, 316 yards and 10 first downs. LSU managed to convert only 4-14 on third down. Despite no sacks and just one quarterback hurry, the Gators allowed only 220 passing yards.   In Napier’s three-plus seasons, it’s always one breakdown or another in the losses. When the Gators score enough points, the defense goes belly up. When the defense shows up, the offense self-destructs.   This was supposed to be the year all those problems were in the past, but it’s the same old, same old. If Yogi were alive he would say it’s déjà vu all over again.   SEC FOOTBALL No. 6 Georgia (3-0, 1-0 SEC) 44, No. 15 Tennessee (2-1, 0-1 SEC) 38, OT: Following a false start with three seconds remaining in regulation, Tennessee’s Max Gilbert pushed a 43-yard field goal attempt wide right sending the Vols’ game with No. 6 Georgia into overtime. Once in the extra period, Gilbert kicked a 42-yard field goal, but Georgia responded with a game-winning touchdown run by Josh McCray. Gunner Stockton threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns, plus ran for another TD. UT quarterback Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns but he was picked off twice.   No. 7 Texas (2-1) 27, UTEP (1-2) 10: Arch Manning had a poor game throwing the ball, completing less than 50 percent of his passes (11-25) for 114 yards with one touchdown and an interception. Manning did run nine times for 51 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Texas managed only 340 yards of offense. The Longhorns were favored by 40.5 points.   Vanderbilt (3-0, 1-0 SEC) 31, No. 11 South Carolina (2-1, 0-1 SEC) 7: South Carolina’s chances to beat Vanderbilt went down the drain when quarterback LaNorris Sellers was knocked out of the game with a concussion in the second quarter. Sellers took a helmet-to-helmet hit from Vandy linebacker Langston Patterson, who was ejected for targeting. It was a 7-7 score when Norris left the game. Vanderbilt scored the final 24 points, led by Diego Pavia, who finished the game with 177 passing yards and two touchdowns.   No. 13 Oklahoma (3-0) 42, Temple (2-1) 3: The name of this game was the Oklahoma defense, which held Temple to 78 passing yards, 26 on the ground and a 34-yard second quarter field goal. Offensively, OU quarterback John Mateer threw for 282 yards and a TD while running for 53 yards and another TD. Tory Blaylock ran for 100 yards and two touchdowns.   No. 16 Texas A&M (3-0) 41, No. 8 Notre Dame (0-2) 40: Marcel Reed’s 11-yard touchdown pass to Nate Boerkircher with 13 seconds remaining and the subsequent extra point by Randy Bond gave the Aggies an upset win over No. 8 Notre Dame in South Bend. Reed threw for 360 yards and a pair of touchdowns and Le’Veon Moss ran for 81 and three scores to keep the Aggies unbeaten and send Notre Dame to an 0-2 start. It was the Aggies first win on the road against a top 25 team since 2014.   No. 17 Ole Miss (3-0, 2-0 SEC) 41, Arkansas (2-1, 0-1 SEC) 35: Trinidad Chambers, who led Ferris State to the Division II national championship, got the start at quarterback when Austin Simmons (ankle) couldn’t answer the bell. Chambers responded by throwing for 353 yards and a touchdown while running 62 yards for two more. The Rebels needed a brilliant game from Chambers to offset Arkansas QB Taylen Green, who threw for 305 yards and a TD plus ran for 115 and another score.   No. 19 Alabama (2-1) 38, Wisconsin (2-1) 14: Ty Simpson torched the Wisconsin secondary for 382 passing yards and four touchdowns including two to Ryan Williams, who caught five passes for 165 yards. The Alabama defense, meanwhile, held Wisconsin to 209 total yards with four sacks and two interceptions.   No. 24 Auburn (3-0) 31, South Alabama (1-2) 15: Auburn’s offense was quite sluggish in the second half when the Tigers scored only three points and gained only 89 yards. Auburn managed only 17 yards in the fourth quarter. The Tigers ground out 195 yards with Jeremiah Cobb running for 119 and a TD. The passing game was quite inconsistent as Jackson Arnold went 13-24 for 142 yards (5.91 yards per attempt).   No. 25 Missouri (3-0) 52, Louisiana (1-2) 10: Ahmad Hardy ran for 250 yards including a 71-yard run and three touchdowns as Mizzou moved to 3-0. Marquise Davis ran for 113 yards and a TD. Missouri ran for 427 yards. QB Beau Pribula threw for two touchdowns and ran for another as the Mizzou offense piled up 606 yards. The Missouri defense limited the Ragin Cajuns to 121 yards, just four through the air on 2-14 completions.   Mississippi State (3-0) 63, Alcorn State (0-3) 0: Mississippi State improved to 3-0 behind a running attack that pounded Alcorn State for 282 yards and six touchdowns. QB Blake Shapen threw for two touchdowns and ran for one. The Mississippi State defense gave up only 155 yards and forced three turnovers while pitching a shutout.   Kentucky (2-1, 0-1 SEC) 48, Eastern Michigan (0-3) 23: Seth McGowan ran for 104 yards and three touchdowns, while Cutter Boley, starting in place of injured QB Zach Calzada, threw for 240 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. The Kentucky defense was torched for 330 passing yards by Eastern Michigan QB Noah Kim.

D.J. La gway suffered his worst outing as a Florida Gator Saturday night. By CARLTON REESE GatorBaitMedia.com They just aren’t who we thought they were. And neither is D.J. No longer is it about good will earned in a furious finish to last season effectively fed into a paper shredder just three games into 2025; this is about questioning our own reality, our belief systems which we cling to like a religion. Convinced the talent is there to compete for a conference championship and return to national prominence, we peruse the roster noting an All-American here, a star-in-waiting there, game-breakers, speedsters and ball hawks peppered elsewhere. Combine that with a “culture” (whatever that overused word means) that supposedly has bred a new character brand which builds long-term foundations of winning programs and there was no reason to believe the last two Saturdays were remotely possible. Yet here we are at 1-2 with the Miami Hurricanes and Texas Longhorns looming. This after Florida lost 20-10 Saturday night. Keep in mind, LSU did not beat Florida 20-10 – Florida ‘lost’ as in the active use of the verb. This did not happen to the Gators; the Gators orchestrated this one – it just so happens that it was LSU on the other sideline. It’s now time to admit we were wrong. Yes, at times it looked like Florida was the team we all thought it could be this year – the Gators controlled LSU in most facets of the game, and even when something great happened for the Tigers it was not the result of great LSU football, but of Florida charity. Yes, we’re talking about D.J. Lagway. The kid is going to get beat up all week for his five interceptions that effectively cost the Gators any chance of winning a game that was theirs for the taking. Were those interceptions the result of aggressive plays where a superman effort overcame a good play, there would not be so much consternation. Regrettably, all five Lagway interceptions made it seem as though he wasn’t even paying attention downfield. He threw into blanket single coverage, double coverage and even triple coverage and on none of the five picks did the Florida receiver have a scintilla of chance to make the catch.   Quarterbacks win games. Quarterbacks make franchises. But when you are building your franchise on a quarterback that now looks more like Kyle Morris than Kyle Trask, you are in trouble no matter how good everyone else may be, no matter how stunningly fabulous your defense is. Remember when the mantra was, “D.J.’s 6-0 in games that he starts and finishes!” Well, now he’s 7-3. Against South Florida, everything went wrong. Against LSU, it was mainly D.J. A decent D.J. Lagway – not even a great one, mind you  -- and Florida is a better team than LSU. Much better. But Lagway was so astonishingly bad Saturday night, it nearly made you forget the myriad of holding penalties against that vaunted veteran offensive line. We love D.J. Lagway and pine for him to be what we all envision, instead of accepting him for what he is. He’s the boyhood crush that can do no wrong no matter how much she cheats or lies – she’s just so darned good looking that you turn a blind eye to the misgivings. Now it’s time to wake up to reality: D.J. is a long way from reaching that potential. When the game ended, ABC television announcer Greg McElroy noted this was “a teachable moment for Lagway.” It looked more like a soul-crushing moment for Lagway, and now we’ll see if Billy Napier can coach this kid back to confident. Nearly four years of data compiled in the Napier era is yet to provide the evidence he can. With the game tied 10-10 late in the second quarter, Florida gift-wrapped the next 10 points to LSU. Trying to get a cheap score before the half and build some momentum, what looked to be a promising drive with the potential to steal three points and the lead blew up when Lagway tried to thread a needle with a mooring line. That throw ended up in the hands of an LSU defender and resulted in a Tigers field goal. Lagway followed that up with another mind-screw: his throw to a well-covered receiver was picked off by Deshawn Spears (not the primary defender in coverage) who returned it 70 yards for a touchdown and a 20-10 lead. LSU hadn’t outplayed anybody, hadn’t outcoached anybody and hadn’t outsmarted anyone, yet enjoyed a 10-point lead. Remember the days when a Florida quarterback would launch a pass downfield and you fully expected to see a Florida receiver running beneath it? Today, that pass goes up and nothing but fear strikes with the notion of what horrors lie in wait. That’s where we are. So who’s at fault? LSU wasn’t any good – Florida’s defense made the Tigers look silly. Ten first downs? Really? The No.3 team in the country? Let’s think about that a while. LSU gained just 316 total yards and 147 of them came on three plays. Maybe LSU’s offense isn’t very good – more than likely the Gators’ defense is great when it’s not spitting into the face of opposing players. I was all prepared for Florida to play well in Baton Rouge Saturday night and possibly win. Writing that column was going to be fun: Enjoy this great win, but brace yourself for some more elation tempered by moments of madness and disappointment. A great team with a brutal schedule has nothing in store but a frenetic ride we’ll remember always. Florida did play well, but its quarterback failed to live up to the moment and delivered about as frustrating a loss one of double digits can be. Have you seen enough, Gator fans? Do we have to sit through this again next week down at that parking lot in Miami Gardens? Is Florida going to go toe-to-toe with the Hurricanes and look the better team all the while giving it away? It’s what we fully expect, isn’t it? Perhaps we were right for the most part in regard to how good Florida is. Yes, there is enough talent there to win at LSU. The problem is that there just isn’t enough mettle to win at LSU, and that matters. It’s as though the Gators just don’t believe deep down they can win games like this. The Gators need a dose of self-help guru Stuart Smalley: “I’m good enough, I’m smart enough, and doggone it, people like me.” A little confidence can go a long way, but right now the Gators are long way from a little confidence.

(Photo by Chris Spears) The point spread, which began on Sunday night with LSU as a 9.5-point favorite, is down to 6.5 points as of Friday evening. Money is moving Florida’s way in Las Vegas. Does that mean the people who set the spreads are thinking the Gators are capable of springing the upset on LSU for a second straight year?   A year ago LSU came to Gainesville 4.5-point favorites against a 4-5 Florida team that was teetering on the verge of a fourth consecutive losing season. The Gators scored 17 points in the second half while the defense, led by a relentless pass rush that put Garrett Nussmeier on the ground six times, held the Tigers to a pair of field goals. With less than five minutes to go, Jadan Baugh broke loose for a 55-yard touchdown run to seal the deal for the Gators.   That win was the catalyst of a 4-game winning streak to end the season as Florida finished 8-5. Three days shy of 10 months later, the Gators are once again underdogs and this time on the road. This LSU team (2-0) is ranked No. 3 in the nation and has national media all but penciling the Tigers in on their College Football Playoff dance cards.   There are two intriguing questions going into tonight’s game in Baton Rouge (7:30 p.m., ABC). First, are the Gators (1-1) as bad as they seemed last week when they blew a perfectly winnable game to lose, 18-16, to unranked South Florida? Second, is LSU as good as a 2-0 record would indicate given the lack of productivity on offense and the two dismal offenses they’ve faced?   The Gators haven’t looked anything like the ranked team they were when the season began. The offense has lacked explosiveness and the defense hasn’t been able to pressure the passer (just 2 sacks so far). Quarterback DJ Lagway has shown the rust from missing spring football and all but a few days of August. His throws have been tentative at best and he seems hesitant to throw the ball downfield. Is it playcalling or that he doesn’t yet trust his arm to deliver the ball on time? The Gators could have a great running game with Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson if only the O-line could get its act together. Over on defense, the Gators couldn’t get off the field against South Florida.   Meanwhile, there is LSU, which has scored only 40 points in two games. Last week the Tigers struggled to put points on the board against Louisiana Tech from Conference USA. Nussmeier, who some think could be the first quarterback off the board when the NFL drafts next spring, is averaging only 5.9 yards per attempt, which is really bad. His issues can be pinpointed to an offensive line that is protecting him about as well as they did last year at The Swamp. Nussmeier is having to unload in a hurry because he’s got pass rushers in his face and there is no place for the running backs to go (3.63 yards per carry) because the O-line can’t run block.   So, can the Gators experience an onfield revival tonight in Baton Rouge? Can they give Lagway time to throw and can he zip the ball downfield to receivers who have the speed to separate from LSU defenders? Can they get Baugh and Jackson to the second level where they can do some serious damage running the ball? Can the edge rushers spend the day in the LSU backfield? Can Caleb Banks do to LSU this year what he did last year? Can the secondary keep the LSU receivers in front of them? And, of course, can Trey Smack make his field goals and can Rocco Underwood deliver a chest-high snap to punter Tommy Doman?   It is a tall order for the Gators, who need to play loose yet focused. They’ve heard all the noise about Billy Napier’s job being on the line again. They can allow that to motivate them into playing up to their talent level or they can allow it to be a distraction.   A motivated Florida team has the ability to make life miserable for LSU coach Brian Kelly. A Florida team that lacks focus and passion will fall to 1-2.   The pick: Something about this game is screaming upset even if LSU is 20-2 at Tiger Stadium since Brian Kelly became the head coach. The Gators figure out a way to win it and send Tiger fans statewide finding the nearest bridge to jump off into alligator-infested waters.   SEC FOOTBALL No. 6 Georgia (2-0, 0-0 SEC) at No. 15 Tennessee (2-0, 0-0 SEC): Georgia was particularly uninspiring last week against D1AA Austin Peay while the Vols were mowing down D1AA East Tennessee State. Now that the paycheck warmup games are in the past it’s time for some serious tackle football. Georgia is a mere 3.5-point favorite, which is shaky. The Vols know if they win this one it might be difficult for them not to make the College Football Playoff thanks to SEC schedule-makers. Even if the Vols lose they might find it difficult to win fewer than 10 games. Georgia’s passing game has been quite pedestrian. Do the Vols load the box and dare Gunner Stockton to throw? Will Georgia simply try to slug it out on the ground and play some defense? An ugly game favors Georgia. The pick: Georgia   UTEP (1-1) at No. 7 Texas (1-1): Texas is favored by 40.5 points. The question is why so few? It might be 40-0 at the half. Arch Manning is going to look like his uncles, but consider the competition … and remember this. The Longhorns get Sam Houston State next week. They don’t play their first SEC game until Florida the first Saturday in October. The pick: Texas   Vanderbilt (2-0, 0-0 SEC) at No. 11 South Carolina (2-0, 0-0 SEC): A year ago the Gamecocks beat Vandy by three TDs in Nashville. This year it’s at Willy-Brice and the Gamecocks are favored by only 3.5 points … not touchdowns. Vandy is determined to turn Saturday night in Columbia into a giant chicken fry. Vandy is playing like an improved team while South Carolina’s offense hasn’t figured things out. Shane Beamer needs to use a Steve Spurrier line in his pregame speech, urging the Gamecocks to be less sucky. Vandy, meanwhile, just blew out Virginia Tech in Blacksburg with an explosive passing game and a solid running game. This has upset written all over it.    The pick: Vanderbilt   No. 13 Oklahoma (2-0) at Temple (2-0): Oklahoma is fresh off a win over Michigan and a 24.5-point fave over Shirley Temple, which has beaten two nobodys. This is a warmup game for the Sooners, who start SEC play next week at home against Auburn. The only dangers for the Sooners are overconfidence and that QB John Mateer might get hurt. The pick: Oklahoma   No. 16 Texas A&M (2-0) at No. 8 Notre Dame (0-1): Two teams that desperately needs this one. Notre Dame can’t afford an 0-2 start while the Aggies still have an SEC schedule to navigate, so an out-of-conference loss could keep them out of the playoff. If there is an advantage, it’s to Notre Dame which has had two weeks to fix what went wrong in the season opening loss to Miami not to mention home field. The Aggies have the better quarterback in Marcel Reed, the better O-line and the better rushing attack. On paper they have everything going for them. Still, it’s Notre Dame in South Bend where the Irish are 6.5-point favorites. The pick: Notre Dame   Arkansas (2-0, 0-0 SEC) at No. 17 Ole Miss (2-0, 1-0 SEC): The Razorbacks come into the game on the heels of two easy wins, both of them over teams that stood no chance whatsoever. Now they start the SEC portion of the season on the road against an Ole Miss team that already has a road win in league play. QB Austin Simmons has been in a boot all week. His health and the Rebels ability to keep Arky QB Tayven Green in the pocket will be the keys. The Rebels are 6.5-point favorites. Seems like it should be more. Could be white knuckles to the very end. The pick: Ole Miss   Wisconsin (2-0) at No. 19 Alabama (1-1): Having not only lost to but been dominated by unranked Florida State, Alabama as a 20.5-point favorite seems rather odd. Wisconsin doesn’t have a quality win to its name, but the Badgers do have eight sacks already and they’ll be going against a Bama O-line that struggled to run the ball and protect the passer against FSU (3 sacks, 5 QB hits). Alabama should win this game, but it has the feel of something closer than three touchdowns. Should the Tide lose, Kalen DeBoer will be the least popular person in the state. The pick: Alabama   South Alabama (1-1) at No. 24 Auburn (2-0): Auburn is favored by 24.5 points. Not only do the Tigers have to win this one, they have to play well because a gauntlet of (at) No. 13 Oklahoma, (at) No. 16 Texas A&M, No. 6 Georgia and No. 25 Missouri follows. QB Jackson Arnold has to have another good game throwing the ball. South Alabama QBs better get used to what might be the best pass rush in the country because it will be a long day in the pocket. The pick: Auburn   Louisiana (1-1) at No. 25 Missouri (2-0): QB Beau Pribula looks better than everyone thought he would when he transferred from Penn State. The Mizzou offense is far better than expected thanks to the play of the QB. The defense still needs to play better but it won’t be challenged by the Ragin Cajuns. Mizzou is a 27.5-point favorite. It will be a shock if they don’t cover.   The pick: Missouri   Alcorn State (0-2) at Mississippi State (2-0): This is a dial-a-score game for the Bulldogs, who get Northern Illinois next week. Give them a 4-0 start and all they’ll need is to figure a way to win two of the last eight for a bowl game. Who woulda thought that? The pick: Mississippi State   Eastern Michigan (0-2) at Kentucky (1-1, 0-1 SEC): Eastern Michigan lost to Long Island University last week. Yes, that LIU. That Kentucky is only a 26.5-point favorite tells you just how bad the UK offense is. Kentucky will win but it’s going to be ugly and it will be six weeks before UK has a chance to win another game. The pick: Kentucky

In The End, the schedule is the killer.

Florida goes on the road for what could be Napier's last trip to Death Valley By Loren Meadows, GatorBaitMedia.com , Football Analyst, Host of the Lowdown with Loren Meadows Lagway must play better for the Gators to get the win (Chris Spears photo) As the Gators walked off the field less than a year ago with a shocking 27-16 victory that left Gator and LSU fans in shock, many thought could this be the turning point for the Gators under Billy Napier? The stoic embattled coach had found a way to get his team off the ledge with a career defining win and bought himself another year at the helm of the ship in Gainesville. The Gators would go on to rattle off three more wins to close out the season, and the promise that was showed in those three wins had many thinking that after all the whining and crying, the Gators had found their man. Here is the thing, while everyone loves to applaud the gains of the offseason as wins in the regular season, sports doesn’t work that way. Teams have to show up week to week and every year is different. And with the goodwill that Florida built up with a solid win at home LSU is like Richard Pryor with that turkey “you will see them again”. The Gators are coming off the worst loss in the Napier era and are headed straight into the teeth of the woodchipper. A game at LSU, at night, against a team that less than a year ago felt the sting of eight sacks and an embarrassing night in The Swamp. LSU has retooled almost every part of its roster through the transfer portal, even pilfering one of the Gators combatants from last year’s game in the process. The Gators say that they will “double down on who they are”, well depending on who you ask, a lot of people don’t like who they are right now so please don’t give us more of it. This game will have a lot to say about both programs going forward as both coaches are on the brink of for sale signs in the front yard with a loss. Brian Kelly says talk of firing Napier is “crazy”. Depending on the outcome, Napier may not be the only one they are talking about. LSU Offense Key Players: #18 QB Garrett Nussmeier (6-1, 205, Sr.), #29 RB Cade Durham (5-9, 205, So.), #0 WR Zavion Tomas (5-10, 192, Sr.), #1 WR Aaron Anderson (5-8, 188, R-Jr.), #6 Barion Brown (5-11,185 Sr./Kentucky), #14 TE Trey’Dez Green (6-7, 240, So.) #61 C Braelin Moore (6-2, 300, R-Jr./Virginia Tech) Key Matchups: The Creeper v. Nussmeier, Florida Secondary v. LSU Receivers Many believe that Garret Nussmeier who sat and waited his turn at LSU could be the first quarterback taken in the 2026 Draft. Many scouts believe that Nussmeier, has all the intangibles to lead LSU to a national title and then an NFL franchise. Not physically imposing, Nussmeier has the ability to make all the throws and is just mobile enough to make the defense account for him in the run game. Running back Caden Durham started six games as a true freshman in 2024 and was one of only two players in FBS to have an 80+ yards run and a 70+ yard reception last season. Durham is tough between the tackles and gives Nussmeier a solid option out of the backfield as well, he had 95 yards against the Gators in 2024. Outside of the star at quarterback the LSU pass catchers could be the best in the conference, Zavion Thomas, Aaron Anderson, Barion Brown, and Trey’Dez Green are fast, and agile, with Thomas and Anderson also factoring in the return game. Green, at 6-7 is a matchup problem in the redzone, but his participation is questionable for this game. Upfront Nussmeier will need the availability of center Braelin Moore, the Virginia Tech transfer who has been solid in the first two games. With Caleb Banks set to make his season debut the Gator will look to replicate the push they got upfront last year, and the absence of Moore could be key. The Gators did a great job against Nussmeier last season forcing him off his spots and confusing him with the “creeper pressures” that are highly effective when the Gators get a push in the interior. The Gator defense has been solid but the talent level of LSU on the outside could be the best they see all season. LSU will look to establish Durham early and then pick and choose their spots over the top. USF had success on the perimeter with the screen game and if you miss Thomas and Brown in space the fight song may follow. Brown has five career kickoff returns for touchdowns including a 99-yard TD against the Gators last season.  LSU Defense Key Players: #33 LB West Weeks (6-2, 235, Gr.), #40 LB Whit Weeks (6-2, 225, Jr.), #42 LB Davhon Keys (6-0, 230, So.) #7 LB Harold Perkins Jr. (6-1, 222, R-Jr.), #0 S Tamarcus Cooley (6’0, 198, R-So./NC State), #1 CB Ashton Stamps (6-0, 190, Jr.) #4 CB Mansoor Delane (6-0, 190, Sr./Virginia Tech) #44 DE Jack Pyburn (6-4, 264, Senior/Florida) Key Matchups: Baugh and Jackson v. The Weeks Brothers and Keys, Harold Perkins v. Florida Tackles The defense has some new and familiar faces that the Gators will have to deal with. Whit Weeks, Harold Perkins, Davhon Keys, and Ashton Stamps have all dealt with the Gators in some form or fashion. Perkins missed last season’s game but looks to be rounding into the form that made him a Freshman All-American in 2023. Perkins is fourth on the team in tackles, first in tackles for loss, and tied for the team lead in sacks. Two of three Weeks brothers on the LSU roster Whit and West have combined for 20 tackles in the first two games with West taking a more stablished role this season. In the secondary Ashton Stamps returns as the top corner for LSU. He is joined by Virginia Tech transfer Mansoor Delane and NC State transfer Tamarcus Cooley at safety. Mansoor was Third Team All-ACC in 2024 and leads the team in pass breakups. Cooley started nine games at nickelback for the Wolfpack in 2024 and gets involved in defending the run for LSU. Cooley is third on the team in tackles with nine in the first two games. Up front the Gators will see a familiar face on the edge.  Jack Pyburn surprised many when he chose to leave the Gators for the Bayou. Pyburn had a breakout season for the Gators in 2024 with 60 tackles, four for loss and one sack. This will be personal for all parties involved. The Offensive line, Pyburn, even Lagway, with each looking to show the other what they are missing.  Lagway had his coming out party against LSU last season throwing for 226 and touchdown in the game. LSU will certainly focus on the Lagway and look to stifle the Gator running game that has been underwhelming after so much preseason hype. The key could be on the outside where the gators have made plays but not the explosives that the team had found with Lagway at the controls. Look for LSU to crowd the box and force Lagway, who has been inconsistent with his mechanics to make the intermediate throws he has yet to complete. Perkins is the x-factor for the defense. Versatile, fast, and physical, his matchups against Barber, Lovett and others on the edge will be the key to a Gators win or loss.  The Skinny:   As my colleague Franz Beard wrote. “It’s LSU and Billy Napier’s status is shaky”. It’s hard to explain and even harder to understand how a team with the recruiting base, improved facilities, and NIL investment could find themselves with the big money folks already calling for Napier’s head just three weeks into the season. This was the season that was supposed to usher in Florida’s return to prominence and possibly a chance to play for it all in the College Football Playoff. Here’s the thing, all of the above could still come true. Napier could be relieved of his duties, or the gators could make the playoffs. It’s the third game; there is a lot of football to be played. The problem is two lackluster efforts to begin the season has lent itself to reason that with this schedule the Gators and Napier are doomed. I truly believe that the Gators could go to Baton Rouge and win by two touchdowns. Or they could lose by 40. Neither would surprise me. This game has had some foggy finishes if you know what I mean, and the same embattled team got it done last year among similar circumstances. I believe that Lagway wants to and will play better as the season progresses and it may start Saturday. I however picked LSU to win this game before the USF debacle, and I am sticking with my gut based solely on what I’ve seen from both teams thus far. The Gators play hard and keep it close but the talent on both sides of the ball is better in the Bayou, particularly at the most important position on the field. LSU wins because Nussmeier is better.    Prediction: LSU 30 Florida 17

(Photo by Chris Spears) “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” – Alphonse Karr   It has been 299 days since LSU came to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium expecting to drive a nail in the coaching coffin of Billy Napier. Sure, Billy had been given a vote of confidence by athletic director Scott Stricklin, but that was before the Georgia game. A loss to Georgia, a blowout loss to Texas in Austin and once again Napier seemed to be hanging by his fingernails.   As we all know, a funny thing happened on the way to Billy getting the axe. The Gators beat LSU, 24-17, followed that up with a win the next week over Ole Miss, which ended any chance the Rebels could make the College Football Playoff, and then came a win over FSU and a Gasparilla Bowl win over Tulane. Four straight wins and all that talk about Billy having to squeeze by on something like $30 million of buyout money went poof into the night.   So, here we are a little less than 10 months later and guess who’s on the chopping block once again? Why, it’s none other than Billy Napier, needing a win over LSU to quiet the masses. It will take more than a win over LSU in Tiger Stadium Saturday (7:30 p.m., ABC) to calm the storm but every Lazarus comeback has to begin somewhere. LSU did the trick last year. Will it do it a second straight year?   Florida is a 7.5-point underdog to the 3 rd -ranked Tigers (2-0). That’s down two points from the opening line. Does that mean the oddsmakers see a ray of hope for Florida? Or is it they don’t trust Brian Kelly to win a game he has to win.   Make no mistake about it, as much as Billy Napier needs this win, Brian Kelly needs it desperately. He has (at) Ole Miss, South Carolina, (at) Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and (at) Alabama coming up. Anything less than the College Football Playoff will give Tiger fans a serious case of apoplexy.   So, think of this game as The Desperation Bowl, a must win for both teams. Only problem is, LSU can absorb a loss and stay in the playoff picture. If Florida loses, Billy Napier’s job security will take a powder.   Can the Gators win this one? Nobody thought they could beat LSU a year ago, but that one was at home. This one is on the road where the Gators are 5-13 in Napier’s 3-plus years on the job. And, it’s Tiger Stadium, no less, where Brian Kelly is 20-2.   Florida has the skills to win, but that win over D1AA Long Island University and the loss to South Florida haven’t exactly given the Gator Nation a case of the warm and fuzzies. The Gators have had some plays here and there where they have looked like the team everyone expected this year, but consistency has been missing on both sides of the football and with special teams.   DJ Lagway is completing 74.5 percent of his passes but he’s only averaging 6.7 yards per attempt, down from last year when he averaged an even 10 per throw. The pass blocking hasn’t been consistent, nor has the run blocking. Jadan Baugh is a stud who can do amazing things once he gets to the second level, but he’s got to have the blocking to get to the second level. The defense has two sacks in two games. A year ago they made life miserable for LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, who went down six times under a relentless rush. Not only that, the Gators couldn’t get off the field against South Florida, whose smaller offensive line did a rather good job of pushing the Gators around. Over on special teams, Trey Smack has already missed as many field goals (3) in two games as he missed in 13 a year ago. Long snapper Rocco Underwood, normally one of the best in the entire country, air mailed one into the end zone for a safety last week. Punter Tommy Doman couldn’t have flagged that down with Michael Jordan’s vertical and a trampoline.   Can Florida put it all together against LSU? Will LSU help the Gators the way they did a year ago. LSU’s veteran offensive line of 2024, the one that Kelly called the best in all of college football, sprung more leaks than one of those rusty tugs mothballing in the Louisiana bayous. This is a newly minted line for 2025 but already the Tigers have given up four sacks.   For Florida to win this game, Florida’s pass rush will be required to channel their inner Fearsome Foursome to put constant pressure on Nussmeier. A week ago, Louisiana Tech sacked Nussmeier three times and got in his face another five. Nussmeier averaged a rotten 5.8 yards per attempt and completed a pass to Louisiana Tech corner Michael Richard.   Once again LSU is struggling to run the ball. Through two games the Tigers are averaging 118 yards per game and 3.63 yards per carry.   Stuff the run, pressure Nussmeier. There you have the defensive game plan in a nutshell.   A year ago, the LSU defense was plagued by inconsistency, enough that remaking the defense was an offseason priority. Through two games, the Tigers are third in the SEC and 11 th nationally in total defense. Sounds good except for the fact the two teams they’ve beaten – Clemson and Louisiana Tech – are the No. 120 and No. 133 offensive teams in the country. Clemson lost to LSU but gained only 316 yards against Troy. Louisiana Tech gained only 262 yards against D1AA Southeastern Louisiana.   What the numbers tell us is we don’t know if the LSU defense is that good or the teams the Tigers have played are simply that bad. It seems like an opportunity for the Gators to play well enough to score an upset win over the No. 3 team in the country.   This is a winnable game for the Gators. Despite LSU’s lofty ranking, the Tigers are far from a sound football team. They did beat Clemson on the road, but Clemson isn’t nearly the team that was expected when the season began. Cade Klubnik has already played his way out of Heisman contention and Clemson fans are wondering how long before Dabo Swinney insists offensive coordinator Garrett Riley call up big brother Lincoln at Southern Cal to see if there is a vacancy on the support staff. Louisiana Tech has a lousy offense but the defense did stuff the LSU offense.   If Billy Napier can get the Gators to play with the passion and purpose that was on vacation last week then Florida has a chance. If the Gators can get off the field on third down, pressure Nussmeier and then plan turnover-free football on the offensive side, it wouldn’t be a surprise for Florida to win. One more thing, Trey Smack can’t miss field goals and Rocco Underwood can’t air mail another snap.   A win over LSU won’t ensure that Billy Napier is around to coach the entire season, but it’s a good first step in the right direction. Ten months ago, the LSU win created momentum that led to a nice win streak at the end of the year. Could it happen again?   If it’s true that the more things change the more they stay the same, then Florida could win and Billy Napier could calm the masses for at least one week.

OH NOOOOOO ALBERTA! PLEASE BE CAREFUL GOING INTO 'DEATH VALLEY' (Photo by Chris Spears)

Five plays that doomed the Gators in painful loss.

(Photo by Chris Spears) Day three in the aftermath of South Florida’s Super Bowl win over the Gators at The Swamp began with a multitude of phone calls and text messages, all of them calling for Billy Napier’s tenure as the football at the University of Florida to be brought to a merciful conclusion. Make no mistake about it, this was South Florida’s Super Bowl, the most important game in school history. It might have been the most important game in Billy Napier’s tenure as the football coach at the University of Florida because his margin for error shrunk to something close to microscopic proportions.   Not many in the Gator Nation believe Napier will be around to coach the Gators much longer. One caller, who believes Napier should have been canned within the hour after the Gators lost to South Florida, quoted Jeremy Foley to me: “What must be done eventually must be done immediately.”   Two games into a 12-game schedule? Shouldn’t Napier be given an opportunity to dig his way out of the hole he’s dug for himself? There are 10 games remaining on the Florida schedule. What if Billy lights a fire under the Gators and they go on a tear? Impossible, you say? Well, take a look at what Marcus Freeman did at Notre Dame last year. The Irish inexplicably lost to Northern Illinois in game two. Irish fans clutched their pearls, screamed bloody murder and called for Freeman to be tar and feathered. In response, Freeman and the Irish went on a 12-game win streak that got them to the national championship game where they lost to Ohio State.   Is it possible that the loss to South Florida was an aberration? Did the Bulls play 60 minutes on an adrenalin high while the Gators were busy looking ahead to 3 rd -ranked LSU, who the Gators play Saturday (7:30 p.m., ABC) in Baton Rouge? Certainly South Florida played an entire game with a fire burning in their bellies while the Gators played like a team that took football lessons online and the internet crashed a couple of pages past the introduction.   You might need military trained bloodhounds to sniff out anyone who thinks the Florida Gators (1-1) have a chance to win in Baton Rouge, but obviously not everyone in Las Vegas is convinced the Gators are sure to absorb a loss. LSU is only a 7.5-point favorite, which is rather slim given the home field advantage of Tiger Stadium. Either the oddsmakers don’t trust LSU or else they think we haven’t seen the best version of the Gators.   What if the Gators played down to the competition in weeks one and two? What if they simply need the motivation of playing a ranked team instead of one from D1AA and another from the Group of Five?     The national media has already abandoned Florida’s chances to have a good season. Would they still think so if the Gators leave Baton Rouge Saturday night with a win over LSU? Would the Florida fan base regain its confidence in Napier? During the bombardment of negativity, I was asked when I will join the majority of Gators demanding that athletic director Scott Stricklin pull the plug on the coach so many of them call Sun Belt Billy? You know … good enough to win at a school like Louisiana in a Group of Five conference like the Sun Belt but not good enough to win at a place like Florida in the Southeastern Conference.   The loss to South Florida is perceived by so many as Billy Napier’s last straw. Through 40 games he’s 20-20 with far too many losses in games that were winnable. Eight of the 20 losses are by a touchdown or less, which has the Gator Nation pulling its hair out. This is Florida, which has won three national championships. From 1990-2010 Florida won more football games (210) than any Division I team in the country, 18 more than Florida State, 19 more than Miami and 24 more than Georgia. Florida averaged 10 wins per season from 1990-2010 and never endured a losing season. Since 2011, Florida has won only 106 games, 67 fewer than Alabama. The Gators have had five losing seasons in the last 15 years.   Napier is Florida’s fifth coach since Urban Meyer resigned in 2010. Everybody agrees that you would be hard pressed to find a finer person who cares more about his players, coaches, staff and the University of Florida. Nearly every person who called or texted since the South Florida loss has commented about the goodness they see in Napier, but they point out he’s paid to win football games and he’s not getting it done.   Here are three comments that came in:   1. “This is not a social experiment. Billy is turning the Gators into a Boy Scout troop. He was hired to win football games.”   2. I was reminded of my long standing belief that college football championship teams are made up of a handful of Boy Scouts and the rest borderline psychopaths: “Too many Boy Scouts, not enough psychopaths on this team.”   3. “He’s 20-20 so far. We’re paying him a million dollars a win. He’s a nice guy and he’s got nice players. Too nice to win championships.” There are 10 games remaining on the schedule. Although eight of the 10 teams are nationally ranked, there isn’t a single team the Gators can’t beat. By the same token, there isn’t a single team on the schedule incapable of beating the Gators.   What would it take for Napier to keep his job? Eight or nine wins would certainly do it and so would a 7-3 record the rest of the way. A 7-3 record would result in an 8-4 mark, a game better than last year against a schedule that’s more difficult. How about 6-4? That’s still 7-5. Would Scott Stricklin make Napier walk the plank with a winning record?   What also is the point of no return? The next four games are at No. 3 LSU, at No. 5 Miami, home against No. 7 Texas and at No. 16 Texas A&M. General consensus is an 0-4 mark will leave Stricklin with no choice but to fire Napier. How about 1-3?   Firing Napier would only set a number of new problems in motion because firing a coach is not that easy. For example, who would be the interim head coach? Ron Roberts is the only assistant coach with head coaching experience and there are reports he’s not universally loved by his players? Who would call the plays? Russ Callaway (tight ends) has done it, but wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales probably knows the offense better. Who would hold the team together and assure them that they won’t lose their NIL money?   More important, does Scott Stricklin have the money lined up to buy out Napier’s contract? The buyout right now would be $22 million with half due within 30 days, the other half paid incrementally. That’s just the beginning since hiring a new coach would most likely require buyout money, plus a ton of money to pay for hiring new assistants and staff, plus moving expenses. It’s at least a $20 million proposition to fire one coach and hire another, plus Stricklin would be asking people to double dip into their wallets since he already asks them for NIL and booster money.   That brings us to who would Florida hire? Some top names might not want to come to a school that has run through five head coaches in 15 years without an outrageous contract. Here are some of the names fans have suggested: Jon Gruden (currently unemployed); Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss head coach, $4 million buyout); Jedd Fisch (Washington head coach, Florida alum, worked for Spurrier, $10 million buyout); Glenn Schumann (Georgia, defensive coordinator); Shane Beamer (South Carolina head coach, former Spurrier assistant, $5 million buyout); Joey McGuire (Texas Tech head coach, $2.8 million buyout); Jon Sumrall (Tulane head coach); Dan Lanning (Oregon head coach, $20 million buyout); Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri head coach, $4 million buyout); Alex Golesh (South Florida head coach, $3 million buyout); Ryan Silverfield (Memphis head coach, Bolles grad and former Bolles assistant, $2 million buyout).   The ultimate darkhorse candidates: Deion Sanders (head coach, Colorado, $8 million buyout); Jimbo Fisher (currently unemployed).   From my personal standpoint, here would be my top five candidates: 1. Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss: I thought he should have been Florida’s top choice after Mullen was canned. At Florida he could recruit players that wouldn’t dream of going to Ole Miss. He’s so good in the portal he could make up quickly any player losses from Napier’s dismissal. Coach O would be one of his assistants. Career record 107-52, 46-18 at Ole Miss. He’s 50 years old.   2. Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri: Nobody does more with less. Put him in a place where there is talent to recruit and he could be amazing. Good guy. Offensive genius whose Missouri teams have gone to five straight bowl games and won 21 games the last two years. Career record 52-25, 40-24 at Missouri. He’s 42 years old.   3. Jimbo Fisher: I know, I know. Jimbo. I’m convinced no one will win big in Aggieland, but he left with $75 million so he’s financially set and money won’t be as big a deal. He’s 128-48 as a head coach, has coached a Heisman winner and won a national championship. He knows the state and is an outstanding recruiter. He’s 60 years old.   4. Ryan Silverfield, Memphis: Jacksonville guy who played at Bolles and coached for Corky Rogers. Six straight bowl games at Memphis. Former NFL assistant. His teams score points and move the football. Memphis has won 21 games the last two years. Career record 44-21. He’s 45 years old.   5. Alex Golesh, South Florida: He’s 41 years old, just beat the Gators and has taken South Florida to two bowls in his first two years as a head coach. He knows Florida and also the SEC from his time as Josh Heupel’s offensive coordinator at Tennessee. He’s 16-12 as a head coach.

He may be walking into his own Baton Rouge execution chamber Saturday night after losing to USF