Nick Saban: Lagway needs the reps, must play better for Gators to win

(Photo by Chris Spears)

A month ago we were drinking the Kool-Aid, believing this would be the year that was for Billy Napier and the Florida Gators. Instead, the Gators are 1-3, the offense is in the tank and Billy Napier’s tush is blowtorch hot. The Gators have eight games remaining and two open dates.

Fortunately, this is one of the open dates, which means there is no way Florida loses a football game this week. A year ago, Billy Napier used an open date to spark a 4-game winning streak at the end of the year. With a schedule that includes six ranked teams, the odds are heavily against Napier transforming the Gators into a winner.

So, why isn’t this the breakout year that everyone on planet earth predicted? It isn’t for a lack of talent as Nick Saban noted on The Pat McAfee Show last week.

“Well, I think Florida has the best roster they’ve had in a long time,” Saban said.

The Gators have talent everywhere. Injuries have created some depth issues, but the replacements are talented although inexperienced. Still, the Florida defense is good enough to make games close, winnable if the offense will cooperate.

Saban points to quarterback DJ Lagway as the centerpiece of Florida’s problems. Lagway had to rehab a shoulder in the spring and then suffered a calf injury that kept him from live reps with the offense until a few days prior to the season opener with Long Island University.

“I think the quarterback has struggled and I think he’s struggled because he hasn’t been able to practice,” Saban said. He hasn’t been able to get enough reps. You know, some guys can play without practice and some guys need reps to get it right. I don’t know this guy, but he hasn’t played well because he hasn’t been able to practice much.”

Saban hasn’t given up on the Gators just yet. Napier, a former Saban assistant, has rebuilt the roster to the point the Gators have enough talent but Lagway has to play better or else it’s going to be a long time until the season ends.

“… They have a good roster and I think if the quarterback plays better they can be a team that can just about beat anybody,” Saban said. “This defense is good and they’ve got a big offensive line and a decent back. I think they can be pretty good.”

The Gators don’t have to be pretty good this week.

SEC FOOTBALL

No. 4 LSU (4-0, 1-0 SEC) at No. 13 Ole Miss (4-0, 2-0 SEC): LSU’s defense is considered elite, but the Tigers four wins are against D1AA Southeastern Louisiana and the No. 89 (Clemson), 109 (Louisiana Tech) and 110 (Florida) offenses. Saturday, they go against a truly elite offensive team in Ole Miss, which is averaging 543.3 yards and 44.8 points per game. It really doesn’t matter if Lane Kiffin plays Austin Simmons or Trinidad Chambers at quarterback because they’re both studs who have maybe the best group of skill players in the country. LSU doesn’t run the ball and relies on QB Garrett Nussmeier to throw for success. If it’s a shootout, Ole Miss has a real advantage. LSU has to slow the pace, control the clock and keep the Ole Miss offense off the field to win.  The pick: Ole Miss

No. 17 Alabama (2-1) at No. 5 Georgia (3-0, 1-0 SEC): Alabama looks much improved since taking a hosing game one against Florida State, but Louisiana-Monroe and a bad Wisconsin team aren’t like playing Georgia between the hedges. The Bulldogs don’t look like the dominant defensive team of years past, but Gunner Stockton is surprising everyone at quarterback. In most years, this one would shape up as a slugfest with the defenses coming up with one big play after another. This year, however, it’s looking more and more that it could wind up in a shootout with Ty Simpson of Alabama and Stockton heaving the ball all over the yard. Georgia, by the way, already has won a shootout this season. The pick: Georgia

Auburn (3-1, 0-1 SEC) at No. 9 Texas A&M (3-0): Last week Auburn fell victim to an incompetent SEC officiating crew. The SEC’s response? Well, gee, they goofed. Bad officials! Bad officials! Auburn was tagged with a loss to Oklahoma, a game they win if the zebras do their jobs. How will the Tigers respond this week at Texas A&M? If there is righteous anger, they will take out their frustrations on a Texas A&M team that has scored more than 40 points in each of its three games. If it has been a pity party this week at Auburn, the Tigers are going to go down in flames at Kyle Field. This is a game that Jackson Arnold will have to rely more on his arm than his legs because the Aggies are stout against the run. Auburn has to keep Marcel Reed in the pocket. If he escapes the rush on a regular basis, Auburn will be toast. The pick: Texas A&M

No. 15 Tennessee (3-1, 0-1 SEC) at Mississippi State (4-0): The Vols can light up the scoreboard but they’ve struggled a bit defensively. Mississippi State is an unexpected 4-0 largely because the threat of the run is opening things up for the passing game. If Fluff Bothwell can find some room to run the Bulldogs can keep the UT offense off the field. In a nutshell, this is how the Bulldogs can spring the upset. If the Vols can stuff the run – difficult due to the injury situation at defensive tackle – they could win this in a rout. Tennessee wide receiver Chris Brazzell II has 25 catches for 426 yards and six touchdowns. The Tennessee passing game will be challenged by a Mississippi State pass defense that ranks third in the country. Can the Bulldogs cover Chris Brazzell II? Shut him down and the passing game will struggle.  The pick: Tennessee

Utah State (3-1) at No. 18 Vanderbilt (4-0, 1-0 SEC): Something about Vanderbilt at 5-0 seems weird, yet that’s where the Commodores will be after this one. Vandy is very real. Imagine this. After the Commodores beat Utah State Saturday they will be within one game of bowl eligible. Keep an eye on QB Diego Pavia. If you’re looking for a Heisman Trophy darkhorse he just might be your man. He just refuses to let the Commodores lose. The pick: Vanderbilt

UMass (0-3) at No. 20 Missouri (4-0, 1-0 SEC): This will be the rout of the week. UMass has been outscored 89-17 in two games against Division I teams and this week the Minutemen are charged with stopping the No. 6 offense in the country (554.3 yards and 46 points per game). After the Tigers score, they turn the game over to the No. 8 defense in the country. Oh the things you do for a paycheck that keeps the lights on in the athletic department.  The pick: Missouri

No. 22 Notre Dame (1-2) at Arkansas (2-2, 0-1 SEC): If the Razorbacks spring the upset, they will buy time for HBC Sam Pittman. If they lose in a rout, it all but ensures Pittman will be paid not to coach next year. The hope for Arkansas is to win in a shootout. Bobby Petrino’s offense is good for 552 yards and 43.5 points per game. If they can score 30 or more, they have a real shot at an upset. Notre Dame will try to slow the game and win the possession battle by pounding it between the tackles. If Arkansas can stuff the run, the Irish are in trouble. The pick: Arkansas

Kentucky (2-1, 0-1 SEC) at South Carolina (2-2, 0-2 SEC): For South Carolina to salvage its season, it has to start Saturday. A third loss in SEC play would derail all the progress the Gamecocks made a year ago when they won nine games. LaNorris Sellers’ Heisman Trophy campaign desperately needs a recharge. These are two of the worst offenses in the SEC so it’s highly unlikely the fans at Willy Brice will see a shootout. There is a really good chance this will rank among the most boring games in the country. The pick: South Carolina