Florida Gators: Saturday Against the Aggies Feels Like A Must Win

Was Miami that good or were the Gators that bad two weeks ago? (Photo by Chris Spears)

Think back three weeks if you will, back to August 31 when the Florida Gators faced 19th-ranked Miami in the season opener at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. From the opening whistle until the very end, Miami dominated the game both offensively and defensively for a decisive 41-17 loss, the worst home opening loss for UF in school history. That game begs the question was Miami that good or were the Gators that bad?

Since routing the Gators, Miami has climbed to 10th nationally. Judging by the schedule, it might take a monumental upset for the Hurricanes to lose a regular season game. They’re only two games into the season, but they have the look of a complete team, plus they have a quarterback in Cam Ward who just might become Miami’s first Heisman winner since Gino Torreta in 1991, which was pretty much awarded for lifetime achievement. Make no mistake about it, however, Cam Ward can do things that Gino Torreta could do only in his dreams.

Based on two games, Miami looks like a lock to win the ACC, make the College Football Playoff and perhaps even win a couple of games. The Hurricanes give the appearance of a complete team whose only chance to be derailed in the regular season is a rash of injuries.

The Gators bounced back from the Miami debacle with a much-expected rout of an overmatched Samford team from the D1AA Southern Conference, not exactly the greatest of measuring sticks. So the jury is still out although the Samford win did offer rays of light that will grow much, much brighter if the Gators (1-1) are able to score a Southeastern Conference win over Texas A&M at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium Saturday (3:30 p.m., ABC).

It is early in the season with plenty of football to be played, but Saturday’s game has a must win feel to it for both the Gators and the Aggies. Both teams began their season with disappointing losses and both rebounded with easy wins in paycheck games against teams from D1AA conferences. Because it’s an SEC game the winner will still have much to prove but will have leapt over a major hurdle. For the loser, the season won’t be over, but a very deep hole will have been dug which will have the fan base questioning the possibility of a winning season.

The oddsmakers have established the Aggies as a 4-point favorite even though they have lost 10 consecutive road games dating all the way back to the 2021 season. Obviously, the people in Las Vegas were more impressed with A&M’s loss to Notre Dame in its season opener than Florida’s loss to Miami even though Miami seems to be a much stronger and more capable team than Notre Dame.

On the same day the Gators were hosed by Miami, then 20th-ranked Texas A&M played host to then 7th-ranked Notre Dame in College Station. The crowd of 107,315 shoehorned into Kyle Field saw a game that could have cured insomnia. Notre Dame outgained the Aggies, 356-246, and walked away with a 23-13 win. Immediately, Notre Dame was elevated to the ranks of serious national championship contender because of an “elite” defense, which reflected in the next poll with a No. 5 ranking.

Then came Northern Illinois with an 8-inch hat pin to burst the Notre Dame bubble. The Huskies were in South Bend for a paycheck, but they walked away with a 16-14 win, not because Notre Dame took them lightly but because they exposed the Irish. That offense that struggled to move the ball against Texas A&M was even worse against Northern Illinois. The Irish gained only 288 yards and their offensive line could neither pass protect nor knock the Huskies off the ball in the run game.

On the other side of the ball, that Notre Dame defense that so easily locked down the Aggies was dominated. The Irish couldn’t stop the run and they couldn’t affect the passer. Northern Illinois pounded the ball between the tackles making that so-called elite Notre Dame defense look very, very average.  

The game was in South Bend so there was no excuse for Notre Dame, whose loss calls into account the win over Texas A&M. Was this a case of a bad day at the office by Notre Dame or even worse by Texas A&M?

It is impossible to judge the Aggies based on their 52-10 bounce back win over McNeese State last Saturday night. The Aggies ran the ball for 333 yards and quarterback Conner Weigman, who was 12-30 passing for 100 yards against Notre Dame with zero TDs and two picks, looked very sharp. But, it was a home game against an overmatched opponent.

Florida had a similar turnaround against Samford. Although starting senior quarterback Graham Mertz missed the game on concussion protocol, the Gators didn’t miss a beat with freshman DJ Lagway at the controls. All Lagway did was set the Florida freshman record with 456 passing yards, more impressively completing nine passes that went for 20 or more yards, five that covered at least 40. A year ago in a 12-game schedule, the Gators managed only five plays in the passing game that went for at least 40 yards.

Florida’s defense, much maligned by Miami and Cam Ward, rebounded by holding Samford to a single TD and just 205 offensive yards. Again, it was a home game against an inferior opponent. Against Notre Dame did the A&M offensive line simply have a rotten day or are the Aggies not nearly as strong as hyped in the preseason?

As for the A&M defense, it has to get ready for a two-quarterback attack provided Mertz is cleared to play. Mertz will get the start, but Lagway is going to play. How much is unclear although Napier seemed to indicate Monday that his prize freshman will have a prominent role. Mertz is the savvy veteran with 44 career starts. He completed 72.9 percent of his passes a year ago while averaging more than eight yards per attempt, clear indicators that he can be very effective.

Lagway? He’s the wild card. No one expects him to have the kind of game against the Aggies that he had against Samford, but he showed off a power arm with laser-like accuracy and he’s much more mobile than Mertz.

Can two quarterbacks give the Gators an edge? Can the Gators move the football consistently and put it into the end zone against an A&M defense that is certainly better than the one they racked up 632 yards against last week? On the other side of the ball can the Gators stuff the A&M run and harass Weigman into a bad day throwing the ball the way Notre Dame did?

We hear so often that teams make the greatest progress working out the kinks between weeks one and two. If we go by scores alone, Florida had the most problems to correct after the week one loss, but once again, is that because Miami was that good or Florida was that bad? And how much progress did the Gators by their dominant win over Samford?

Nearly the same questions can be asked of the Aggies? Were they inept against Notre Dame or simply having a case of the first game blues? Were they able to resolve their issues last week then take them out on McNeese State?

Whatever the answers might be to these questions, either Texas A&M or Florida is going to win Saturday afternoon. The winner will get a much-needed injection of optimism that a good season is still attainable. The loser will be forced to endure the sharp knives of a fan base and media that will go full doom and gloom mode.

This game is critical both for Texas A&M and the Florida Gators. Both Napier and Texas A&M coach Mike Elko would agree to that, but both would tell you that every SEC game is critical and this one is no different.

But it is different. It’s different because when the final whistle blows Saturday we will finally have a realistic opinion of what to expect the rest of the way.