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  • Can Billy Napier channel his inner Zooker Saturday in Jacksonville?

    Billy Napier could end questions about job security if he beats Georgia Saturday (Gator Bait Photo by Chris Spears) A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning: We could call what happened from 1990-2010 The Revenge Tour. For 25 years nothing caused more ulcers among Gator fans than the stress of dealing with Georgia and Vince Dooley. Dooley held a 17-7-1 advantage over the Gators including at least four games that prevented Florida from winning the Southeastern Conference.  All that changed with the hiring of Steven Orr Spurrier in 1990. Spurrier made Georgia his own personal whipping boy, going 11-1 against the Bulldogs. Ron Zook went 2-1 and might have gone 3-1 except he was fired on the Monday prior to the 2004 Georgia game. He coached that Saturday and nearly bushwhacked the Bulldogs, dropping a 31-24 decision. Urban Meyer followed Zooker, torturing Georgia with a 5-1 record.   During that magical run, the Gators won eight SEC and three national championships. Georgia won two SEC titles and didn’t sniff a national championship, but all that changed when Meyer departed after 2010. In the 13 years since, Georgia holds a 9-4 advantage with two SEC and two national championships, both won by Kirby Smart, who is 100-17 in his nine years on the job. Overall since 2011, Georgia is 150-34 while Florida’s four coaches have combined for a 102-69 record. During the Kirby Smart era at Georgia, the Gators are 63-44.   Among the four coaches since Meyer only Jim McElwain held a winning record (2-1) against Georgia. Will Muschamp was 1-3, Dan Mullen was 1-3 and Billy Napier is 0-2.   The reasons for Florida backsliding to those years of yesteryear when “Wait ‘til next year” was the unofficial Gator battlecry are numerous but stability has plenty to do with it as does finding the coach who is the right fit for the job. Since Steve Spurrier retired after the 2001 season, Florida has gone through six football coaches. Georgia has had two -- Mark Richt and Smart. Richt, who went 145-51 at Georgia, was Bobby Bowden’s offensive coordinator when he was hired. Smart was Nick Saban’s defensive coordinator at Alabama. Neither had ever been a head coach prior to taking the Georgia job. Florida’s only two hires who had no head coaching experience (Zook and Muschamp) were a combined 51-34.   Although Georgia has already lost a game this season, most experts believe the Bulldogs (6-1, 4-1 SEC) will be one of the last four teams standing when the College Football Playoff enters the semifinal stage. Perhaps a majority of those same experts believe Billy Napier will be (a) job hunting at the end of the regular season and (b) consulting his financial planner to figure out the best place to invest the $26 million buyout money Florida will have to pony up to fire him.   Napier is 4-3 this season (15-17 since taking over in 2022) without a win over a team with a winning record. Saturday he goes against Smart, who was a colleague at Alabama when the two were Nick Saban assistants, for the third time. Smart and Georgia are 16.5-point favorites to begin a November run toward a championship with a relatively easy win over the Gators. Should Georgia blow the doors off the Gators, will the calls to terminate Napier be loud enough to convince the administration that the search for coach number seven since 2001 should begin immediately?   What if Napier and the Gators go white knuckles with the Bulldogs? Lest we forget, Georgia barely escaped with a 13-12 win over the same Kentucky team Napier and the Gators destroyed by 28 points two weeks ago. Can the Gators make Smart and Georgia sweat it out?   And, what happens if Florida does the impossible? Back in 2002, Zook’s first year on the job, the Gators came Jacksonville unranked with a 5-3 record. Georgia was No. 5, unbeaten and clearly in the national championship discussion. Trailing 13-12 in the fourth quarter, Rex Grossman led the Gators on a 10-play, 89-yard drive that culminated with a 10-yard touchdown pass to Ben Troupe. Grossman, not exactly a dual threat, ran for the 2-point conversion to put the Gators up 20-13, a lead they never surrendered. Florida finished 8-5 that year. Georgia went 13-1, missing out on an unbeaten season that probably would have landed them in the national championship game against Miami.   Zooker shocked the world with that win. A Napier win would be even more of a shocker, but this is Jacksonville, a place where weirdness has been known to happen when Florida plays Georgia. A Napier win and he’s coaching the Gators in 2025. Etch that in stone. A close call could do it, too.   Stranger things have happened.   SEC FOOTBALL No. 14 Alabama (6-2, 3-2 SEC): Paul Finebaum, who earlier in the month called Bama dead in the water has changed his tune. Asked which SEC team is poised to have a November to remember on Sports Center, Finebaum replied, “I think it’s Alabama.” The Tide is off this week but plays LSU in Baton Rouge November 9 in a playoff elimination game for both teams.   Arkansas (5-3, 3-2 SEC): The task for Arkansas this week will be to protect QB Taylen Green against an Ole Miss pass rush that was credited with 10 sacks last week against Oklahoma. Arkansas has given up 17 sacks this season. Ole Miss has 34, best in the SEC and 2nd nationally. Next: No. 19 Ole Miss (6-2, 2-2 SEC)   Auburn (3-5, 1-4 SEC): Auburn hopes to have better luck handling Vandy QB Diego Pavia than they had last year when he was at New Mexico State. In leading New Mexico State to a 31-10 upset of the Tigers in 2023, Pavia threw three touchdown passes. Next: Vanderbilt (5-3, 2-2 SEC)   No. 2 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC): Guard Tate Ratledge and defensive lineman Jordan Hall are practicing and expected to play against the Gators Saturday. Running back Branson Robinson and linebacker Smael Mondon are quesitonable. Next: FLORIDA (4-3, 2-2 SEC) in Jacksonville   Kentucky (3-5, 1-5 SEC): The Wildcats have made it into the red zone as SEC worst 22 times in eight games. They’ve scored 12 touchdowns and kicked six field goals. HBC Mark Stoops said Monday, “Criticism is fair. I don’t get involved in play calling.”   Next: at No. 7 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC)   No. 16 LSU (6-2, 3-1 SEC): Starting left guard Garrett Dellenger suffered a high ankle sprain in the loss to Texas A&M so having the open date came at a good time with Alabama looming on November 9.   Mississippi State (1-7, 0-5 SEC): Linebacker Bangally Kamara, who opted out after four games at South Carolina, will officially visit Mississippi State. Prior to South Carolina, Kamara played four seasons at Pittsburgh. Next: UMass (2-6)   No. 25 Missouri (6-2, 2-2 SEC): Not only are the Tigers 0-2 against the two ranked teams they have played (No. 10 Texas A&M, No. 14 Alabama), but they’ve been outscored 75-10 in those two games.   Oklahoma (4-4, 1-4 SEC): The Sooners have given up 19 sacks in their last two games. Their 39 sacks allowed through eight games is the worst in the nation. Next: Maine (4-4)   No. 19 Ole Miss (6-2, 2-2 SEC): ABC opted to put Alabama at LSU as its night game November 9 with Georgia at Ole Miss at 3:30, which prompted Lane Kiffen to remark, “LSU gets to play at night again, I guess? Shocker. So that’s 2-for-2 for them. It is an advantage. I feel bad for our fans not to have at least one game at night for a conference game.” Next: at Arkansas (5-3, 3-2 SEC)   South Carolina (4-3, 2-3 SEC): The Gamecocks are on the right track defensively, ranking 13th nationally (298.3 yards per game), but their offense lets them down, gaining only 346.9 yards per game. Next: No. 10 Texas A&M (7-1, 5-0 SEC)   No. 7 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC): In four SEC games the Vols average 349.25 yards and 21.5 points per game. In their three non-conference games, the Vols averaged 639.33 yards and 63.67 points per game. Next: Kentucky (3-5, 1-5 SEC)   No. 6 Texas (7-1, 3-1 SEC): The Longhorns are using the open week to do some healing and improvement on an offensive line that has played poorly in the last two games. The Longhorns gave up seven sacks in their loss to Georgia and ran for only 104 yards against Vanderbilt.   No. 10 Texas A&M (7-1, 5-0 SEC): The way Marcel Reed played to lead the Aggies to a come-from-behind win over LSU last week might put Conner Weigman on the bench the rest of the season. Reed has thrown for six TDs without a pick and has run for five more TDs in the six games in which he has played. Next: at South Carolina (4-3, 2-3 SEC)   Vanderbilt (5-3, 2-2 SEC): Vanderbilt’s success is hard to figure because the Commodores rank 13th in the Southeastern Conference in total offense (351.5 yards per game) and 12th in total defense (339 yards per game). Next: at Auburn (3-5, 1-4 SEC)   ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT:   Already three coaches have bit the dust and certainly more will follow. It will be a November to remember for more than just some teams winning enough games to make the College Football Playoff or a bowl game. For some it will be one to remember because they’ll have to pony up a boatload of money to pay for a buyout. Here are a few predictions of things to come in the coaching profession.   1. UCF won’t fire Gus Malzahn but demand changes in the coaching staff: They’re paying Gus $2.3 million to win football games and he’s 3-5 this year. He’s 27-21 overall which is why he will get another year, but he has to hire a new play caller and a new DC. He took the first step earlier in the week when he fired DC Ted Roof.   2. Jimbo Fisher will become a hot commodity: Just because things didn’t work out at Texas A&M doesn’t mean Jimbo forgot how to coach. He did win a national championship at FSU and so much of the Aggie team that could win the SEC this year he recruited. His HBC record at FSU and A&M is 128-48.The boy can recruit. He’s a coach and has the itch to do it again. Since he has $76 million banked from his Aggie buyout, he can work cheap. He will be in demand for a really good job.   3. Brent Venables will poach Navy’s Drew Cronic to be his offensive coordinator: He has resurrected Navy with his innovative play calling and funky offense that is part pro, part option. His teams run the football and incorporate some new wrinkles in the passing game. He could save Brent Venables’ coaching career.   4. LSU offensive coordinator Joe Sloan will be hired as the HBC at East Carolina: This is a nice stepping stone job for the big time. ECU has the facilities and one of the best fan bases among the Group of Five. It will be going home for Sloan, who played QB at ECU 2005-08. He’s one of the bright young minds in the college game.   5. Mack Brown will retire at North Carolina: Mack is too old school for what college football has become. He’s won more than 100 games at both Texas and North Carolina and has a national championship to boot (Texas 2005). He’s 73 and he looks very tired.   6. Dan Mullen likes the booth but could be persuaded to coach again: Take away that final year at UF and he was 28-9 with three straight New Year’s Six bowl games. He won at Mississippi State and nobody wins there. He’s living the good life up in North Georgia and he works on weekends for ESPN. It’s a good gig but he could be persuaded to coach again if he got the right job and could hire the right recruiter. Bet the ranch that Jimmy Sexton is already fielding calls to gauge his interest.   Bonus prediction: The Carolina Panthers will make a play for Kirby Smart, who will elect to stay at Georgia, but they will succeed at hiring Lincoln Riley away from Southern Cal. The Panthers need a quarterback guru to mentor former Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young and there are few better than Riley at developing a QB. Riley is no closer to bringing a national championship to Southern Cal now than the day he was hired away from Oklahoma. Thanks to its rich booster base and Big Ten money, Southern Cal will make a big time hire to replace the departed Riley.

  • For a puncher's chance vs. UGa, the Gators must play well up front

    Jadan Baugh (13) powers in for a TD against Kentucky behind a physical offensive line (Gator Bait Photo by Chris Spears) A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning: Over almost before both teams broke into a good sweat. That’s pretty much the story of the last three years of the Florida-Georgia rivalry, if you really want to call it that. There is no doubt Florida hates Georgia and vice versa, but to call it a rivalry, the games have to be competitive. The last time the Gators had a competitive game with the Bulldogs was the COVID year of 2020 when Kyle Trask lit up Georgia for 474 passing yards and four TDPs in a 44-28 Florida win. The rivalry has turned into nothing more than a tuneup for the final stretch of the regular season for Georgia and the crash and burn finish for the Gators. Since Florida's last win over Georgia, the Bulldogs are a combined 48-3 with national championships in 2021-22. The Gators are 21-24. In the games following Georgia starting with 2021, the Gators are a combined 4-10.    Since 2021 Georgia has cruised to three easy wins by a combined 119-47 margin, games that were blowouts before halftime. In 2021, Dan Mullen’s final year on the job at UF, Anthony Richardson got his first collegiate start. After a 0-0 first quarter, Georgia struck for 28 second quarter points, 14 of them after a Richardson fumble at the UF 11 and a pick six. Georgia won the game 34-7, Florida’s second straight loss in a 6-7 season in which the Gators went 2-5 down the stretch.   In Billy Napier’s two years on the job, Georgia has racked up leads of 28-3 and 26-7 at the half en route to wins of 42-20 in 2022 and 43-20 last year. In both games, Georgia has commanded the line of scrimmage, particularly early on, putting the Gators at a distinct disadvantage. It's hard to come back on really good teams when you get whomped consistently up front. Take the last two games, for example. The Gators have run for a collective 209 yards and given up eight sacks. Georgia on the other hand has run for 410 yards and hasn’t allowed a single sack.   For the Gators (4-3, 2-2 SEC) to have even a puncher’s chance against the 2nd-ranked Bulldogs (7-1, 4-1 SEC) Saturday in Jacksonville (3:30 p.m., ABC), they have to at least hold their own at the line of scrimmage. If there is a measure of truth in the stats then this seems to be Florida’s best shot at a truly competitive game with Georgia since the 24-17 loss to the Bulldogs in 2019 and the 2020 win.   In eight games, Georgia has yet to run for more than 169 yards. The Bulldogs average only 130.29 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 14th in the 16-team SEC and 95th nationally. To Georgia’s credit, the Bulldogs have given up only eight sacks but Carson Beck has been pressured enough that he’s thrown eight interceptions. He threw only six in 14 games a year ago.   In Florida’s seven games, the Gators allow 164.29 rushing yards per game, but they’ve registered 12 sacks in the last four games. The Gators have given up only 56 points in the last three games after allowing 109 in the first four.   Can the Gators put a dent in the Georgia defense? Can they run the football on a team that allows only 107.14 yards per game and 3.35 per carry? Can they protect DJ Lagway well enough to prevent an onslaught of sacks like we saw against Texas when the Bulldogs got to the quarterback seven times for -59 yards in losses?  Georgia allows only 16.9 points per game, but the Bulldogs gave up 41 to Alabama and 31 to Mississippi State.   Since a low point of 52 rushing yards against Texas A&M the Gators have averaged 172.75 rushing yards per game and a respectable 4.54 yards per carry. The Gators have allowed only 10 sacks all year.   Georgia is a 17-point favorite so no one is expecting the Gators to win this game, but can they avoid the first half onslaught, keep it competitive through three quarters and then make the Bulldogs sweat it out in the fourth quarter? That alone would be a major improvement over the last three years, but if it’s close after three maybe, just maybe the Gators can hang with Georgia to the bitter end.   Stranger things have happened.   SEC FOOTBALL No. 14 Alabama (6-2, 3-2 SEC): Alabama has to run the table to make the College Football Playoff. The game at No. 16 LSU on November 9 will be the biggest obstacle. The last three are D1AA Mercer, at Oklahoma and Auburn.   Arkansas (5-3, 3-2 SEC): The Razorbacks are a game away from bowl eligible. The last four are No. 19 Ole Miss, at No. 6 Texas, non-conference Louisiana Tech and at No. 25 Missouri. Bowl eligible and Sam Pittman will be gainfully employed at Arkansas next year.   Auburn (3-5, 1-4 SEC): Auburn needs three wins to get bowl eligible and reduce the heat in Hugh Freeze. Last four games are Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, No. 10 Texas A&M and at No. 14 Alabama.   No. 2 Georgia (7-1, 4-1 SEC): Everybody is penciling in Georgia to the SEC Championship Game and the CFP, but the next three games are difficult -- Florida in Jacksonville, at No. 19 Ole Miss and No. 7 Tennessee. Georgia makes the playoff at 10-2.   Kentucky (3-5, 1-5 SEC): The Wildcats have to go 3-1 in the last four games to not only become bowl eligible but to avoid their first losing season since 2015. The last four are at No. 7 Tennessee, D1AA Murray State, at No. 6  Texas and non-conference Louisville.   No. 16 LSU (6-2, 3-1 SEC): Another loss and the Tigers can forget making the playoff. The last four games are No. 14 Alabama, at Florida, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma.   Mississippi State (1-7, 0-5 SEC): The Bulldogs play the only winnable game remaining on their schedule (UMass) Saturday. They close at No. 7 Tennessee, No. 25 Missouri and at No. 19 Ole Miss.   No. 25 Missouri (6-2, 2-2 SEC): The Tigers were exposed by Alabama. Even if they run the table (Oklahoma, at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, Arkansas) it might not be enough to make the playoff.   Oklahoma (4-4, 1-4 SEC): The Sooners should win Saturday against D1AA Maine. They won’t be favored in the last three at No. 25 Missouri, No. 14 Alabama and at No. 16 LSU.   No. 19 Ole Miss (6-2, 2-2 SEC): The Rebels will make the playoff if they go 4-0, but it won’t be easy at Arkansas, No. 2 Georgia, at Florida and Mississippi State.   South Carolina (4-3, 2-3 SEC): For the Gamecocks to become bowl eligible, their defense is going to have to pull out a couple of wins in the last five. The Gamecocks face No. 10 Texas A&M, at Vanderbilt, No. 25 Missouri, D1AA Wofford and at No. 11 Clemson.   No. 7 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC): The Vols have a good chance to make the playoff and possibly win a share of the SEC regular season with a final five games of Kentucky, Mississippi State, at No. 2 Georgia, non-conference UTEP and at Vanderbilt.   No. 6 Texas (7-1, 3-1 SEC): The Longhorns can go 3-1 and still make the playoff. The last four are Florida, at Arkansas, Kentucky and at No. 10 Texas A&M.   No. 10 Texas A&M (7-1, 5-0 SEC): The Aggies seem to be mortal locks for the playoff and they have a reasonably good chance to finish with the only unbeaten SEC record in the regular season. The last four games are at South Carolina, New Mexico State, at Auburn and No. 6 Texas.   Vanderbilt (5-3, 2-3 SEC): This has been a surprising and improbable season for the Commodores, who need to find a win in the last four to get to a bowl game. The schedule is at Auburn, South Carolina, at No. 16 LSU and No. 7 Tennessee.   COUNTDOWN TO FIRING DAY: WEEK 7 Extinct Species List Mike Bloomgren, Rice: Firing is such a tacky thing for a school where the average freshman has a 1550 on his SAT. But, after a 24-52 record they finally pulled the plug. You’d have to be crazy to take this job.   Mike Houston, East Carolina: Houston won everywhere else he coached except the one place that had everything needed to win big, so the powers that be made him walk the plank. LSU offensive coordinator Joe Sloan could be the guy here.   Will Hall, Southern Miss: Believe it or not, from 1947-63 only four teams in the country won more games than Southern Miss. They long for the good old days in Hattiesburg. Someone needs to write a big check to get the program back on good footing.   On Life Support Billy Napier, Florida: If the Gators can avoid getting blown out in the next four games and finish 5-7, Billy just may survive even with a third straight losing record. Having a talent like DJ Lagway who is just a freshman is a very nice get out of jail free card.   Stan Drayton, Temple: Just when Drayton and Shirley Temple got everybody’s hopes up with a win over Tulsa, they lost to East Carolina. Three of the last four are very losable for a team that is 2-6 and a coach who is 8-23 in three years.   Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech: If Cumbie survives it’s because the Bulldogs should be 6-1 right now instead of 3-4. They’ve lost three one-possession games, a good excuse for a school that doesn’t have cash to burn.   Joe Moorhead, Akron: The Zips beat Eastern Michigan last week. Big shock to the 4,277 in attendance. The Zips are 2-6 and none of the remaining games seem winnable.   Mike Neu, Ball State: The Cardinals are 3-5 with a shocking win over the same Northern Illinois team that beat Notre Dame in South Bend. A couple more wins and Neu might survive.   Endangered Species List Dave Aranda, Baylor: Baylor has won its last two games, moved to 4-4 and has a chance to go 7-5 or even 8-4. Now, 6-6 or a losing record and he’s back On Life Support.   Hugh Freeze, Auburn: Just when everyone thought Hugh had one foot out the door he beat Kentucky. If he can beat Vandy this week and Louisiana-Monroe in three weeks, safe to say he will be back despite Paul Finebaum’s objections.   Jim McElwain, Central Michigan: Old Yeller is 3-5 with four very losable games remaining. They don’t like firing coaches in the Big MAC conference, but Old Yeller is pushing the envelope.   Clay Helton, Georgia Southern: Obviously, he couldn’t stand prosperity. He went off the Endangered Species List with a 3-game win streak that included a bushwhack of James Madison only to get his doors blown off by Old Dominion. He’s 5-3 and needs to win two more games or he’s a goner.   Don Brown, UMass: He’s 2-6 with two wins over D1AA teams. What a concept, D1AA. UMass was once a D1AA power, but they can’t balance the books unless they play a lot of paycheck games. You can get more paycheck games if you’re not a D1AA team.   Mike Norvell, Florida State: From the penthouse to the outhouse. The Seminoles are 1-7 and D1AA Charleston Southern is the only winnable game left. There is a juicy rumor that if Norvell could get another job, FSU would waive the buyout.   Trent Dilfer, UAB: The Blazers have lost six straight. The only thing keeping Dilfer from moving to On Life Support is they don’t have any money to buy him out.   ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: We are only days away from a November to remember, a month in which all hell threatens to break loose in college football. Somewhere up above, Mike Slive can’t wipe the grin off his face. Somewhere in Birmingham, Greg Sankey wears a rather smug “I told you so” look that breaks out any time someone mentions the names Kevin Warren (former Big Ten commish), George Kliavkoff (former commish of the now defunct Pac-12) and Little Jimmy Phillips, who is praying the ACC can somehow get two teams into the College Football Playoff.   Slive proposed expanding the playoff from four teams a couple of years before his death. He was told expansion would diminish the regular season. Sankey called for a 12-team playoff in 2021, which led Warren, Kliavkoff and Phillips going into apoplectic shock. Warren left the Big Ten before he was run out. Kliavkoff ran the Pac-12 out of existence. Phillips has a conference that has its two most successful teams since 2009 threatening to secede.   All the cries that an expanded playoff would benefit only the SEC have been shot down. The same is true for predictions that an expanded playoff would mean some team with two losses could win the national championshp so the regular season would be rendered almost meaningless.   Well, none of that has happened. Instead we’ve got at least 16 teams from power conferences still in playoff contention and no less than nine with a shot at the berth that will go to the highest ranked team from the Group of Five.   The last two weekends of November and the conference championship games could be utterly chaotic. Beautiful, isn’t it?

  • Florida-Georgia: Dogs favored by 18.5 but stuff happens in Jax

    DJ Lagway (2) can expect Georgia to attempt to daze and confuse him (Gator Bait Photo by Chris Spears) Stuff happens in Jacksonville. Fourth and Dumb happened there. So did “Run Lindsey run!” Henry Davis, who hadn’t allowed a touchdown pass over him all season stepped in a puddle in 1975 and Georgia’s Gene Washington got behind him for the game winning touchdown. Anthone Lott called a timeout just ahead of the snap in 1993, nullifying a touchdown pass that would have given Georgia a win. Rex Grossman became the master of the 2-inch pass in 2002 when Florida cost Georgia an undefeated season and a shot at the national championship game. Georgia stormed the field after a first quarter touchdown in 2007 prompting Urban Meyer to call timeouts in the final seconds the next year, prolonging the agony of Florida stomping the Bulldogs by 39 points. With Georgia defensive coordinator Todd Grantham trying to distract by giving the choke sign, Chas Henry kicked the game-winning field goal in overtime in 2010.   The list goes on and on but it’s not difficult to conclude that stuff happens, often quite weird when the Gators and Georgia play in Jacksonville every year. That’s why you shouldn’t think the sky is falling simply because the early line on the 2024 Florida-Georgia game favors Georgia by 18.5 points.   Now, it’s true that Georgia could very well cover the spread and put a good old- fashioned whooping on the Gators. Georgia is really, really talented so when everybody gets focused and plays with attitude bad things happen to whoever the Bulldogs are playing.   Beating Georgia is a monumental task for Billy Napier and the Gators. For Napier it would be that signature win that has eluded him since he became Florida’s head coach. To beat Georgia he will go into battle with a true freshman quarterback who’s coming off a game in which he averaged 18.6 yards per pass attempt. What DJ Lagway has shown is a penchant for throwing it deep with astonishing accuracy   Lagway is Florida’s ace, a former 5-star guy who Napier cut loose on a most unsuspecting Kentucky team. Five of his passes covered 40 yards or more. He’s really, really good but Georgia has had a week to prepare for Lagway, who is the kind of freshman the Bulldogs chew up and spit out.   Remember 2022 and Anthony Richardson? The Georgia game was Richardson’s first start and in a disastrous first half Georgia made him look like a kid who hadn’t started a game since his high school days. Georgia disguised coverages and brought blitzes from all new angles, forcing then UF head coach Dan Mullen to sub in Emory Jones. Billy Napier doesn’t have an Emory Jones to rely on in the event Lagway is frustrated by Georgia’s defensive disguises.   So, the Gators are going into battle with a true freshman QB to go against what is arguably as talented a defensive unit as there is in college football. It is a recipe for a disaster but lest we forget, this is Jacksonville where the Gators will be facing Georgia and Jacksonville is a place where strange things happen.   SEC FOOTBALL Saturday’s scores No. 5 Texas (7-1, 3-1 SEC) 27, Vanderbilt (5-3, 2-2 SEC) No. 14 Texas A&M (7-1, 5-0 SEC) 38, No. 8 LSU (6-2, 3-1 SEC) 23 No. 15 Alabama (6-2, 3-2 SEC) 34, No. 21 Missouri (6-2, 2-2 SEC) 0 No. 18 Ole Miss (6-2, 2-2 SEC) 26, Oklahoma (4-4, 1-4 SEC) 14 Arkansas (5-3, 3-2 SEC) 58, Mississippi State (1-7, 0-5 SEC) 25 Auburn (3-5, 1-4 SEC) 24, Kentucky (3-5, 1-5 SEC) 10   No. 15 Alabama (6-2, 3-2 SEC): The big story Saturday was Alabama’s much-maligned defense. The Tide intercepted three passes while holding Missouri to 239 yards, keeping alive their College Football Playoff hopes. Next: Open   Arkansas (5-3, 3-2 SEC): QB Taylen Green threw for 314 yards and five touchdowns while running for 79 yards and another TD. Arkansas piled up 673 yards, the third time this season the Razorbacks have eclipsed 600 yards in a game. Next: No. 18 Ole Miss (6-2, 2-2 SEC)   Auburn (3-5, 2-2 SEC): Jarquez Hunter shredded the Kentucky defense for 278 yards on 23 carries for two touchdowns as the Tigers won their first SEC game of the season. Auburn ran for 326 yards. Next: No. 25 Vanderbilt (5-3, 2-3 SEC)   No. 2 Georgia (6-2, 3-2 SEC): Georgia may have appealed the targeting penalties against defensive backs Dan Jackson and Joenel Aguero, who were flagged in the second half of the Texas game. If the appeals are not overturned Jackson and Aguero will have to sit the first half of the Florida game. Next: FLORIDA (4-3, 2-2) in Jacksonville   Kentucky (3-5, 1-5 SEC): The Wildcats’ string of eight consecutive seasons going to a bowl game is in jeopardy after losing to Auburn. The Wildcats need three wins to become bowl eligible. Among their four remaining games are road trips to Tennessee and Texas. Next: at No. 7 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC)   No. 8 LSU (6-2 3-1 SEC): With two losses, the Tigers almost certainly have to go 4-0 in November to have a shot at the College Football Playoff … Despite throwing for 405 yards, Garrett Nussmeier was intercepted three times and sacked three times. Next: Open   Mississippi State (1-7, 0-5 SEC): There’s not much wrong with the MSU offense, which gained 471 yards including three TDPs against Arkansas. The problem was the defense which gave up 314 passing yards and 359 on the ground. Next: UMass (2-6)   No. 21 Missouri (6-2, 2-2 SEC): You can stick a fork in Mizzou’s College Football Playoff hopes after its miserable performance against Alabama. Not only were the Tigers shut out, they couldn’t get off the field as Bama ran for 271 yards and threw for 215. Next: Open   Oklahoma (4-4, 1-4 SEC): Jackson Arnold returned to the starting QB role, throwing for 181 yards and two touchdowns against Ole Miss but the O-line was a sieve as he was harassed and sacked nine times. Next: Maine (4-4)   No. 18 Ole Miss (6-2, 2-2 SEC): The Rebels remain in the College Football Playoff hunt after the defense got to Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold for nine sacks, four by Suntarine Perkins. They need a 4-0 November to have a shot at the playoff. Next: at Arkansas (5-3, 3-2 SEC)   South Carolina (4-3, 2-3 SEC): Wide receiver Jared Brown may be available against the Aggies next Saturday. There is an outside chance defensive tackle DeAndre Jules may also be available. Next: No. 14 Texas A&M (7-1, 5-0 SEC)   No. 7 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC): There are accusations that Tennessee pipes in recorded crowd noise to make their Neyland Stadium crowd louder and more intimidating. Tennessee, of course, denies the accusation. Next: Kentucky (3-5, 1-5 SEC)   No. 5 Texas (6-2, 2-2 SEC): The only thing that saved the Longhorns against Vanderbilt were two interceptions and a forced fumble by the defense. Vandy got to QB Quinn Ewers for four sacks, plus Ewers threw two interceptions. Next: Open   No. 14 Texas A&M (7-1, 5-0 SEC): When the Aggies made the switch at quarterback to Marcel Reed the game with LSU changed course. Reed ran for three touchdowns while leading the Aggies to 31 points and a real grip on first place in the SEC. Next: at South Carolina (4-3, 2-2 SEC)   No. 25 Vanderbilt (5-3, 2-3 SEC): The Commodores scored with 46 seconds left to cut the Texas lead to three but their onside kick failed and the Longhorns avoided the upset. Vandy can become bowl eligible with a win at Auburn next Saturday. Next: at Auburn (3-5, 1-4 SEC)   AROUND THE STATE Saturday’s scores No. 11 BYU (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) 37, UCF (3-5, 1-4 Big 12) 24 No. 6 Miami (8-0, 4-0 ACC) 36, Florida State (1-7, 1-6 ACC) 14   Next week Florida Atlantic (2-5, 0-3 American): The Owls have struggled mightily against the pass in their last two games, giving up 776 yards and six TDPs in losses to North Texas and UT-San Antonio. Next: South Florida (3-4, 1-2 American)   Florida International (2-6, 1-3 Conference USA): The Panthers played their best defensive game of the year, but still dropped a 10-7 decision to Sam Houston. Next: New Mexico State (2-5, 1-3 Conference USA)   Florida State (1-7, 1-6 ACC): The Seminoles managed only 248 yards of offense, extending their streak of games with fewer than 300 yards to eight. Next: North Carolina (4-4, 1-3 ACC)   No. 6 Miami (8-0, 4-0 ACC): Cam Ward didn’t throw a touchdown pass nor did he throw for more than 300 yards for the first time all season. He didn’t need to because the Hurricanes pounded FSU for 230 rushing yards. Next: Duke (6-2, 2-2 ACC)   South Florida (3-4, 1-2 American): The Bulls have had a week off to further adjust the offense to fit the skill set of Bryce Archie, who has started the last two games after Byrum Brown went down with an injury in a loss to Tulane. Next: at Florida Atlantic (2-5, 0-3 American)   UCF (3-5, 1-4 Big 12): UCF made its loss to BYU competitive when the switch at quarterback was made to freshman Dylan Rizk, who threw for 102 yards and a TD and ran for 31.   Next: Arizona (3-5, 1-4 Big 12)

  • When it comes to UF-Georgia are you an optimist or a pessimist?

    For the Gators to upset Georgia the defense is going to have to play a near perfect game (Gator Bait Photo by Chris Spears)   The eternal optimist looks at this week’s open date and thinks the Florida Gators have a chance to prepare an ambush for their annual showdown with No. 2 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC) next Saturday in Jacksonville. The optimist looks at how Florida’s defense improved substantially after the last open date and how it has continued to improve ever since. The optimist also takes note of how the Gators hung 48 points on the same Kentucky Wildcats who blew a chance to beat Georgia in Lexington back on October 14. Optimists dream of quarterbacks like DJ Lagway who can throw laser-guided smart bombs to receivers like Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike and running backs like Jadan Baugh who can run over, under, around and through that same Kentucky defense that all but stiffed Georgia’s running game in that 13-12 loss.   The eternal pessimist sees the open date merely as a delay of the inevitable, that Georgia is going to lower the boom on the Gators for the sixth time in the last seven years. A pessimist sees that Florida has yet to win a game against a team with a winning record (Samford, Mississippi State, UCF and Kentucky are a combined 10-17) and that Florida’s three losses are at the hands of ranked teams that have a combined record of 19-2. The pessimist sees Georgia as a very pissed off team that ate up and spit out Texas in Austin and believes if the Bulldogs can hold the Texas offense to 15 points and 259 yards imagine what they’ll do to Florida.   Optimists aren’t about to predict a Florida victory, but they do expect a better effort out of the Gators than the ones they saw in losses to Miami and Texas A&M. Optimists believe Florida’s effort against Tennessee followed by the rout of Kentucky are far better indicators of potential success against Georgia than the losses to the Canes and Aggies.   Pessimists see an angry Georgia team that is just now rounding into form. They look at Georgia and believe the Bulldogs are a far better team than Miami, Texas A&M or Tennessee. They expect Kirby Smart to dial up something special that will daze and confuse Lagway and render Florida’s improved offensive line useless. Without protection and some exotic packages, they don’t think Lagway will have enough time to throw the ball to Badger or Dike. They figure that if Texas, which was running on everyone, averaged only 1.07 per carry against the Georgia defense then how will Baugh and those talented UF running backs succeed. The pessimist also believes Carson Beck will light up Florida’s secondary and Trevor Etienne will exact a measure of revenge on his former teammates.   Somewhere between optimism and pessimism are the following realities: (1) The Gators are better than they were when the season began on both sides of the football; (2) Florida’s offensive line has allowed only 10 sacks, eight in the losses to Miami, Texas A&M and Tennessee; (3) Florida’s wide receivers are fast enough and Lagway is accurate enough throwing the deep ball that no one on the remaining UF schedule is going to be able to load up the box; (4) the defense isn’t giving up chunk plays on a regular basis since the first open date; and (5) having stomped the same Kentucky Wildcats that should have beaten Georgia and gone toe-to-toe with Tennessee in Neyland Stadium, the Gators should take the field in Jacksonville with a reasonable amount of confidence.   Now, only the most optimistic among us is going to predict a Florida upset, but stranger things have happened. Is it likely? No. Would it shock the college football world? Absolutely, but who would have ever predicted that Vanderbilt could light up Alabama for 40 points and walk away with a win? That happened and Alabama hasn’t been the same since. Based on what we saw of Kentucky at The Swamp, do you find it mind boggling that the Wildcats should have beaten Georgia (13-12 loss) in Lexington and would have if HBC Mark Stoops hadn’t played it too conservative? We should also note that Alabama lit up the Georgia defense for 41 points and Mississippi State scored 31.   It is improbable that Florida will beat Georgia next Saturday, but there is a marked difference between improbable and impossible. As unlikely as a Florida upset might be, it’s not completely beyond the realm of possibility.   For the Gators to spring the upset, they’re going to have to play a near perfect game and Georgia is going to have to make some mistakes. Again, a near perfect game from the Gators isn’t an impossibility and lest we forget, Carson Beck, who a lot of folks penciled in as the top Heisman candidate, has thrown more interceptions in seven games (8) than he did in 14 games last year (6).   SEC FOOTBALL No. 15 Alabama (5-2, 2-2 SEC): This is a College Football Playoff elimination game for both Alabama and Missouri. For Bama to win the game the Tide is going to have to run the football. Alabama has only 263 yards on the ground in the last three combined. Today: No. 21 Missouri (6-1, 2-1 SEC)   Arkansas (4-3, 2-2 SEC): If the Hogs are going to become bowl eligible, today’s road trip to Mississippi State is one of two winnable games remaining on the schedule. The other is Louisiana Tech November 23. Today: at Mississippi State (1-6, 0-4 SEC)   Auburn (2-5, 0-4 SEC): Paul Finebaum doesn’t think Hugh Freeze is going to make it as the Auburn coach. “… I have seen nothing from Hugh Freeze on the actual football field that makes me believe he will make it as the Auburn coach,” Finebaum said on a Birmingham radio show. Today: at Kentucky (3-4, 1-4 SEC)   Kentucky (3-4, 1-4 SEC): Kentucky is a 1.5-point home favorite against Auburn. The Wildcats are coming off their worst defensive performance of the year (476 yards, 48 points vs. Florida). Today: Auburn (2-5, 0-4 SEC)   No. 8 LSU (6-1, 3-0 SEC): LSU brings the No. 8 passing offense in the country (322.4 yards per game) against a pass defense that hasn’t allowed a 300-yard game all season long. Garrett Nussmeier (18 TDPs) has thrown for at least 300 yards in six of the Tigers seven games. Today: at No. 14 Texas A&M (6-1, 4-0 SEC)   Mississippi State (1-6, 0-4 SEC): The Bulldogs have scored 55 points in the last two games. The problem is they’ve been unable to stop anyone. For the season MSU averages 27.4 points per game and gives up 33.3. Today: Arkansas (4-3, 2-2 SEC) No. 21 Missouri (6-1, 2-1 SEC): Starting QB Brady Cook is considered doubtful for today’s game with Alabama in Tuscaloosa. He has been extremely limited in practice all week. Missouri is a 15.5-point underdog. Today: at No. 15 Alabama (5-2, 2-2 SEC)   Oklahoma (4-3, 1-3 SEC): The injury bug has had a devastating effect on the Sooners. The offensive line and receiving corps have been hit particularly hard, which explains the lack of offense. Oklahoma can't win if the defense doesn't show up in a big way. Today: at No. 18 Ole Miss (5-2, 1-2 SEC) No. 18 Ole Miss (5-2, 1-2 SEC): Ole Miss isn’t completely out of the playoff picture but they have to run the table to make it. They face an Oklahoma team with a pathetic offense today, but the Sooners are giving up only 325.9 yards per game. Today: Oklahoma (4-3, 1-3 SEC)   No. 5 Texas (6-1, 2-1 SEC): Texas gave up seven sacks last week against Georgia, which came into the game with only 11 on the season. The Longhorns face Vanderbilt in Nashville today. The Commodores have only 14 sacks all season. Today: at No. 25 Vanderbilt (5-2, 2-1 SEC)   No. 14 Texas A&M (6-1, 4-0 SEC): The Aggies have allowed only seven sacks all season. They go against an LSU pass rush that has generated 24 sacks today. LSU allows only 114.86 rushing yards while the Aggies run the ball for 218.57 yards per game, which ranks 12th nationally. Today: No. 8 LSU (6-1, 3-0 SEC)   Vanderbilt (5-2, 2-1 SEC): Alabama was ranked No. 1 when it played Vandy in Nashville. Texas comes in ranked No. 5 today. Do the Commodores have more Nashville magic in them? If they do, they become bowl eligible with four games to go. Who would have ever thought that would happen? : No. 5 Texas (6-1, 2-1 SEC)   AROUND THE STATE Florida State (1-6, 1-5 ACC): The Seminoles are guaranteed a losing season if they lose to Miami. FSU is a 21-point underdog. Today: at No. 6 Miami (7-0, 3-0 ACC)   No. 6 Miami (7-0, 3-0 ACC): The Hurricanes lead the country in total offense, averaging 577.3 yards per game. QB Cam Ward leads the country in passing yards (2,538) and touchdown passes (24). He’s averaging 10.3 yards per pass attempt. Today: Florida State (1-6, 1-5 ACC)  UCF (3-4, 1-3 Big 12): UCF has lost three consecutive games and is facing the 11th-ranked team in the country today, yet the Knights are 2.5-point favorites to spring the upset on BYU … The Knights are third in the country in rushing, averaging 280.29 yards per game. BYU give up 141.29 yards per game on the ground. Today: No. 11 BYU (7-0, 4-0 Big 12)

  • Bowl eligible for Florida Gators? Improbable but not impossible

    Albert and a few others might faint if the Florida Gators somehow win six games and become bowl eligible (Gator Bait Photo by Chris Spears) A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning: Bowl eligible. In most cases it means a reward for mediocrity, but given the difficulty of Florida’s schedule and the rash of injuries that have plagued the Gators since the season began, a 6-6 record that would not only give the Gators another game but the equivalent of a second spring practice is a worthy goal to shoot for.   At 4-3 overall and 2-2 in SEC play getting to 6-6 is a steep hurdle, particulary considering the next four games are No. 2 Georgia (Jacksonville), at No. 5 Texas, No. 8 LSU and No. 18 Ole Miss. That is followed by non-conference Florida State, 1-6 so far this year, but it’s a rivalry game and those are never gimmes.   When the Gators were sitting at 1-2 with the losses at the hands of Miami and Texas A&M, getting anywhere close to four wins, much less six, seemed the longest of shots, but the Gators are a much-improved team. The defense has played extremely well the last three games and in the 48-20 win over Kentucky, the Gators played like a team capable of competing at a very high level. As well as they have played, they will have to elevate their level of intensity to win even one of the next four, especially since they’ll face four straight quarterbacks that rank among the best in the country.   Can they win one of the next four and then close out the regular season with a win over FSU in Tallahassee? It seems impossible, but the Gators went on the road to Neyland Stadium and should have won that game. So, they’re capable of competing at a very high level. Competing and winning? Another story altogether.   Prior to the start of the season, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas set the over/under for the Gators at 5.5 wins. General consensus was given the difficulty of the schedule, 6-6 should be considered a success. Here we are with five games to go and 6-6 might be difficult, but it can be done if the defense can avoid catastrophe and DJ Lagway is given enough time to find Elijhah Badger, Chimere Dike and Tre Wilson running free in the secondary.   SEC FOOTBALL A look at what’s ahead with five games remaining for the rest of the league. No. 15 Alabama (5-2, 2-2 SEC): The SEC championship is out of the question, but the Crimson Tide still could make the College Football Playoff. The only way that happens is to run the table – Missouri, at LSU, non-conference Mercer, at Oklahoma and Auburn. Right now, don’t bet on making the playoff.   Arkansas (4-3, 2-2 SEC): The Razorbacks have a chance to get bowl eligible, which seemed next to impossible when the season began. Games with Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech should get the Hogs over the hump. The other three games are Ole Miss, Texas and Missouri.   Auburn (2-5, 0-4 SEC): At this point in time, just getting a win or two will rejuvenate the fan base which is rather hostile at this point toward Hugh Freeze. Winning four out of five to get bowl eligible seems an impossibility since the SEC portion of the schedule is Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Alabama.   No. 2 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC): The Bulldogs have a three game stretch of Florida in Jacksonville, at Ole Miss and Tennessee before two non-conference games to close the season. Georgia can afford to stumble once and still make the College Football Playoff.   Kentucky (3-4, 1-4 SEC): The goal now is to get bowl eligible. There are roadies with Tennessee and Texas plus a non-conference closer with Louisville. To get to 6-6 will be dicey but doable.   No. 8 LSU (6-1, 3-0 SEC): The Tigers could be the last team standing with an unbeaten record in SEC play this weekend when they travel to Aggieland. Three of their last four SEC games are at home (Alabama, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma), the only roadie at Florida. Go 8-0 in the SEC and LSU plays for the SEC championship. A 10-2 record almost certainly puts them in the College Football Playoff.   Mississippi State (1-6, 0-4 SEC): The Bulldogs are simply looking for a win and the only sure thing looks to be lowly UMass, an independent that might be the worst team in America.   No. 21 Missouri (6-1, 2-1 SEC): If Missouri can spring the upset on Alabama in Tuscaloosa this weekend, the Tigers could finish 11-1. That’s doable because the remaining games will be Oklahoma, at South Carolina, at Mississippi State and Arkansas, all of them extremely winnable. There is a really good chance the Tigers aren’t nearly as good as their record would seem to indicate.   Oklahoma (4-3, 1-3 SEC): The Sooners are a trainwreck on the offensive side of the ball which is why they have a legitimate shot to finish dead last in the league. The four SEC games remaining are at No. 18 Ole Miss, at No. 21 Missouri, No. 15 Alabama and at No. 8 LSU.   No. 18 Ole Miss (5-2, 1-2 SEC): The Rebels should be 7-0 right now but they’ve squandered away wins against Kentucky and LSU. They have to play Oklahoma this week and then at Arkansas, which is not a good place for anyone this year. After that it’s Georgia at home and at Florida before closing out against Mississippi State. Ole Miss has to run the table to make the College Football Playoff and that means they have to beat Georgia in Oxford.   South Carolina (4-3, 2-3 SEC): Winning two of five to be bowl eligible rests on the shoulders of a ferocious defense. The Gamecocks are going to have to figure out a way to score points to get to six wins with a schedule that includes SEC games of Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Missouri and a non-conference closer with Clemson.   No. 7 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC): The Vols still have to play Georgia but the rest of the schedule is quite favorable – Kentucky, Mississippi State, UTEP and Vanderbilt. They lost to Arkansas and played Florida and Alabama too close for comfort. If they can get through the SEC schedule with only two losses they probably will make the College Football Playoff.   No. 5 Texas (6-1, 2-1 SEC): The last five games are all SEC – at Vanderbilt, Florida, at Arkansas, Kentucky and at Texas A&M. Suddenly, the Longhorns don’t look so formidable. Could Vandy spring the upset on them this week? They can afford one more loss, but not two.   No. 14 Texas A&M (6-1, 4-0 SEC): The Aggies could clear a major hurdle to their first SEC championship if they can stick it to LSU this Saturday. The other SEC games are at South Carolina, at Auburn and Texas at Kyle Field.   Vanderbilt (5-2, 2-1 SEC): If Clark Lea doesn’t win SEC Coach of the Year then there is something seriously wrong with how the award is chosen. Vandy has five games left to win one game to become bowl eligible. Who would have thought that? The five games are Texas, at Auburn, South Carolina, at LSU and Tennessee.   COUNTDOWN TO FIRING DAY: WEEK 7 Extinct Species List Mike Houston, East Carolina: He was 77-25 including 37-6 at James Madison prior to ECU, but four losing seasons in six years plus a bleak outlook for the rest of the year brought about change. Names to watch are Western Kentucky’s Tyson Helton, LSU offensive coordinator Joe Sloan and Texas A&M defensive coordinator Jay Bateman.   Will Hall, Southern Miss: He was 56-20 at West Alabama and West Georgia with two trips to the DII semifinals. A native of Amory, Mississippi he seemed to be the perfect hire at Southern Miss but he’s 14-30. Expect former UAB coach Bill Clark’s name to be heard prominently in the coaching search along with Georgia tight ends coach Todd Hartley.   On Life Support Billy Napier, Florida: The win over Kentucky earned him breathing room. If the Gators are competitive in the next four and find a way to win one of Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss, he will be back. Count on it.   Stan Drayton, Temple: Shirley Temple beat Tulsa. Who would have figured that? It won’t stop Stan from getting fired. The powers that be are asking why do we pay this guy $2.5 million when he is 8-23 and likely to lose the rest of his games?   Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech: His fate was sealed with a loss to New Mexico State, which hadn’t won a game all year. It will take a miracle finish to get five wins in the last six, which would save his job.   Joe Moorhead, Akron: This is a dead end job. They didn’t realize how good they had it when the Little Dweeb (Terry Bowden) was their head coach. Moorhead is 5-26 with only one shot at winning a game (Kent State). Goner.   Mike Bloomgren, Rice: Rice is 2-5 and needs three wins in the last five games for Bloomgren to remain gainfully employed. A 5-7 record at a school that’s tougher to get into than most in the Ivy League could save him because at Rice firing a coach is so tacky.        Mike Neu, Ball State: He is a Ball State legend as a player, but he’s 39-61 as a head coach at his alma mammy. Four wins in the last five games would save his job, but donkeys might fly first.   Dave Aranda, Baylor: Baylor clocked Texas Tech last week, shocking the Big 12. The Bears are 3-4. Three wins in the last five isn’t beyond the scope of possibility. A bowl game he stays. Five wins he goes.   Endangered Species List Hugh Freeze, Auburn: Blowing a 17-6 lead to Missouri didn’t exactly endear himself to the faithful, but if Mr. Yella Wood says pull the plug, Hugh’s a goner. Auburn is 2-5 with four straight losses.   Jim McElwain, Central Michigan: The Chips are 3-4 and capable of winning four of their last five games. They are also capable of losing all five. Old Yeller is on shaky ground.   Don Brown, UMass: The Minutemen are 1-6 and there are paycheck games with Mississippi State and Georgia still on the schedule. Nobody can win here. They need to go back to D1AA but those paycheck games pay a big chunk of the non-revenue sports budgets.     Mike Norvell, Florida State: The Seminoles are 1-6 and they still haven’t gained 300 yards in a single game. Florida had 313 at the half against the No. 4 defense in the country last week. Just saying.     Trent Dilfer, UAB: The Blazers are 1-6. The only thing that’s going to save Trent is when they realize they don’t have enough cash to buy tires for a Yugo.   Kevin Wilson, Tulsa: He’s living proof of the Peter Principle, a great offensive coordinator who has no business being a head coach. Tulsa just lost to Shirley Temple, which is something no respectable program does. He’s only in year two so he will get a third year – probably. No guarantees here although the school doesn’t have any money.   ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: There is still way too much to go in the season before we’ll know for sure who’s in and who’s out of the College Football Playoff, but here is a look at the teams that are probable, plus those who have work to do to get in.   SEC Probable: Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU Work to do: Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri   Big Ten Probable: Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State Work to do: Illinois   Big 12 Probable: Iowa State, BYU Work to do: Kansas State, Colorado   ACC Probable: Miami, Clemson Work to do: SMU, Pittsburgh, Duke   Independents Probable: Notre Dame   Group of Five Probable: Boise State Work to do: Army, Navy, UNLV, Liberty, Louisiana

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